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Really what Bonanza is saying isn't so blasphemous. Back in Dec I sold 25% of my RBY ( don't crucify me please) and bought UXG. Since then RBY is up 20% and UXG up 90%. Now the question is: Should I move those $ back into RBY. My answer is not yet. Think I will wait another 2-3 months and evaluate again.
Have been in RBY for over 4 years. Love the potential but the last 2 years there has been very little appreciation.
Our perspectives are different. I don't care what the price does in the near term, it's the long term I'm interested in.
Given that Greece will fail, credit markets freeze up, the dollar plummet and the air-filled stock market crash after the US election, gold and its miners will be the place to be. When the sheeple figure this out, it will be too late.
Be right and sit tight.
You sure do not make observations and learn from them. You just named man of the very things that will most likely happen and will take gold down with them just like it happened in 2008. I have to wonder how you miss that. When the stock market crumbles so will gold and gold shares. By the way going from one year to another is exactly what makes up long term.
Everyone's is. I think that Rubicon has as good a chance of being a successful venture as any other junior I know of, which isn't much now days. My approach has always been pragmatic, and hopefully realistic as well.
Finding McEwen gone, and looking for placement of my Fronteer profits, I stumbled on to this company, and made a few bucks trading since, but everything I've learned about Phoenix over the last year has ALL been very positive. You see I wasn't salivating over early bulk reports, but trying to understand the deeper issues of what we did know. So often I have seen when the more obvious has proved the truest indicator.
Well, all I can say is that if anyone has heartburn over this wouldn't have lasted long when Ian Telfer took us from three ancient silver mines in Central Mexico, to controlling Goldcorp today. I took 30% hits more than twice, and that always reduces your yearly gain.
Wheizer - i did the exact same thing in December (except with new money, didn't sell any RBY until it hit 4.40s), and now am asking myself the same question about where to park my funds. the UXG appreciation prior to the merger was an easy (yet very profitable) call.
now question is, once RBY is fully diluted with enough money to build a mine, how does it appreciate?
here is my logic:
it will have around 294k shares out if all options are exercised by underwriters. at 4.10 canadian a share, that values the company around 1.2 billion CA$. my estimate is that, once the financing is complete, the companies market cap can go up to 1.5 billion relatively easily, or 5.10 a share. $5 is resistance. at that point, it will be whether or not there is game changing news to take it higher (big hits deep, large new drilling area or finds outside the 9X box). if there is news like some have suggested there may be, i think the 2 billion market cap is the ceiling for the stock until the end of 2012. a 2 billion market cap translates to a stock price of CA 6.80.
from there, it all depends on whether they can speed the timeline to production. i think they will be producing earlier than their estimates of Q4 2013.
I have a hard time rationalizing par on the CAD, while AUD is taking off. At this time, I believe that the only move here, is move to a USA exchange from a Canada exchange and hope for the premium this year.
We saw this a decade ago, when the consolidation phase was king. Hopefully next year will be better here. I have only a small spec positions here, and wish the larger holders a good trade, that RM companies are, with good swings.
Whelzer, I did essentially the same as you. On Dec. 16, I sold all my RBY and added to my larger MNEAF position. I always intended it to be a short term redeployment of funds, and I have been waiting to make the switch back. I sold some of the added MUX (formerly MNEAF/UXG) on Friday, and it was a gift today to buy back into RBY at $4.07. Lost 5% on the RBY gain over the past 7 weeks, but gained about 90% on the MUX. During the time I was out of RBY, I was always concerned about missing out on any good news, so I'm relieved not to have missed any. And I'm looking to add more, if RBY holds or drops more in the near term.
Doig and pio and others love to jump down the throat of anyone who raises a critical eye at RBY and its management, but the fact of the matter is that this secondary is priced at 6 cents lower than the last secondary (McEwen) completed 17 months ago.