There is a lot of noise over on stockhouse board from a number of different posters about the horrible job this company has done in managing the construction of the mill. The comments seem consistent and the posters - at least some - certainly seem credible. They also don't seem like bashers as their message history reflects both postive and (more recently) negative comments about the company. So Adamson and folks mismanaged the project by being too far removed from it and not having a man on the ground. Money has been wasted and process is taking much longer than initially stated. Did anyone else notice the mill is now scheduled to not be completed until mid 2014. So, I am trying to wrap my head around a few different issues.
First, numerous people on this board stated that after talking to the new IR guy, it sounded like everyone in management new the importance of getting to production asap and, from the reports here, 610 was going to be the place to start. Then, we get Monday's PR stating that they are going deeper and the mill will be completed and production starting in the second half 2014. I guess internally they weren't on the same page yet. Anyhow, is it possible the reason they are going deeper is becuase of the construction mismanagement? The mill isn't going to be completed, so why not go deeper. Good excuse for the market and mgmt doesn't need to come out and state the embarrasing fact of, once again, missing key dates.
Also, is the real reason for the brutal collapse in price actually this construction mismanagement and not the pending litigation? Does anyone now believe if the issue with First Nations was cleared up today, the price would get a lasting boost in price. I think the big players got word of the fiasco in Red Lake and that is the catalyst behind the share price collapse. Sure, First Nations didn't help, just piled on, but the mill issue seems to be a pretty big issue.
Also, is RBY a buy, hold, or sell today. Is the bad news out there now - pending litigation, mill construction, delay, possible dilution - and all of it is baked in the price or is there more to come. That is what I am struggling with now. One hand, the gold is there, and the price is at a three year low. On the other hand, I am seeing a pattern with this company and is certainly not one that put's my mind at ease.
Lastly, one of the posters from Stockhouse predicted that due to all this mismanagement, etc. RMX or RBY would be taken out below 4. I have heard several times before that the reason GG never made a move on RBY (and probably why Rob sold - not to bring that up again) is that they had no confidence in this team (Adamson, etc) succesfully developing this project. GG was just waiting until the company destroyed all the shareholder value and they would pick it up for a song. We shall see. The new team does give me confidence, but after the past few years, I am feeling rather shakey.
Has anyone simply called RBY IR and asked the question: why the mill is now scheduled to not be completed until mid 2014? I'd do it now but lack the breadth of knowledge many of you here have.
kg (10K Shrs RBY Long @ $5.54 since 4/11/2011)
Park... I was just checking out photos on website also.... the ones posted under Phoenix Gold Photos / Operations / Mill Excavation you can see the progress from CIL steel photos dated 1/10/13 and 1/17/13 and then compare them to 1/28/13 photos... They erected the last few sections of framing for the CIL portion of the Mill bldg and appear to be ready to frame the next section to the north of the CIL bldg (photo 1/18/13) while they finish foundation work for the main mill bldg on the north end.
Not sure about the contractor issues doig mentioned from another board... but that stuff can very easily be made up and hard to refute without knowing the daily details of the project. I agree with you, the photos show progress, so that's probably most important conclusion to draw without a legitimate update from the company.
If more new photos are posted over the next few weeks that show progress on the north side mill bldg foundations from the 1/18/13 photo... that should help determine if there's any legitimacy to the mb post doig referred to.
You make some very good points and the worse news may not be out yet. I would keep in mind that their could be some truth to some of this Stockhouse posting. I think it would be a good idea if management would tell us what the deal is on the mill and if there was some real problems what they have done to correct the problems. It would be nice it they could manage to go to production in 2015, I would hate to think they will not move into production until 2016. Also the next time they reach out for more money it may not be that easy to get.