What you have said about the 26% internal dilution factor makes sense. The problem is that most investors still compare the 14+ g/tn grade with the 8.5g/tn of the new PEA and conclude RBY is a huge disappointment.
( Look at the BMO post) If internal dllution discount is not a factor with the old PEA, due to different mining methods would it not be correct to compare grade without internal dilution? The grade would be around 11 g/tn. There may be alot of gold but the company won't promote it.
I have been invested in RBY since before the split. It hurt to say it, but given golds downtrend (despite the lack of physical supply ) the need for additional financing, and lack of investor commnication, it is long past time to sell.
Yes it would be helpful if they also gave the grades before dilution, however, perhaps it can get confusing for the average person if different grades are given, and even then many investors start out only concerned with the ounces produced, the forecast profits and the ounces in reserves. The 14+ grade material is still there, but when infill drilling is done, they fill in the rest of the grid, even drilling some areas where geologists would not have as much interest in. Then every intersection that is above 4 gm has to be included in the calculation, as that is the cut off to the economic grade. It works out to a lower grade, but still the total ounces has increased, about 110% they said. At the AGM, I would hope that they show a section in the plane of the veins to give people a picture that there are higher grade zones within the total boundaries.
The company knew this would concern investors so looks like they waited to give people the economic calculation at the same time, so that people can see that the economics remain reasonable. People are still not taking it in perspective. Now, with the regulations, and more legal risks, it must be more difficult for a company to explain as they would like. Some of the lack of communication is forced on them. continued...
"golds downtrend, ...financing, ..lack of communication, it is long past time to sell". So now an analyst made a brief calculation that missed some important points, etc, and it's not the best day, but it seems many people are experiencing an uncomfortable feeling, that they would like to sell. It might turn out that the next period is when people should actually be bullish, as the 52 week low may be made in the next day or two. I think gold will pierce 1200, where buying will come in leading to a bounce that may somehow turn into the actual bottom, good chance as 1200 is an important level. So it is possible that we are only say $40 and half a day away from the end of the downtrend. People rarely talk about net present value on this board, now today it is a current topic of the day. I think in a while and especially when 2015 arrives investors will not care much about NPV, they will see articles about the mine in operation, and will value based on P/E because the reserves are large. So with say 15 times earnings it could be trading at $3 in 2015, a good return from today. This company does geology well, so once they have some profits they could have another project underway that appeals to investors. So in the long run it would not be a surprise for the shares to eventually reach a new high. Anyways, "time to sell" no way, actually I'll be trying to buy some gold shares around 1200, or when bond yields stop their current rally.