I appologize for being harsh and calling your TA baseless, in fact I've been following your posts for the last couple of weeks, but calling for a big drop based on H&S may not end up being completely right, as the randomness and uncertainty that can change the charts for different analyzers and therefore change the outcome.
First of all I'm following GLD as one of the main parameters. I know long term correlation is meaningless, but for daily fluctuations it's a very useful tool. The other tool I use is GDX itself and based on it I can say while a sell off is not impossible, but 48.5 isn't impossible either based on hitting the descending line of the converging wedge that I described in the other post.
The other factor that I really consider is energy and oil prices, as this is the main factor affecting the miners' profit margins, and we're very close to a top for energy prices.
Lastly Dollar index is a significant parameter also, as if it goes down, it shows an inflationary environment which is good for gold and miners and we are about to have our major leg down for DXY0 shortly.
Hope to have more constructive discussions with you and others
I never say my analysis are the only once that are right or that they are right period. Even the best analysis have only a 75/25 chance of being right because of the forces outside of TAs. You didn't read my original post to the end
Here is the last sentence:
"But again....None of this (referes to H&S breakout) may ever happen. My humble opinion is only as good as anybody else'"
Granted, H&S may or may not break out, but I'll be damn if I trade against it..