I obviously was mistaken in thinking that the purpose of boards was to offer reasoned objective opinions in order to be helpful to potential investors/traders.I will attempt to do so.I am not a day trader nor a "hold forever"investor.My buy/sell decisions are based on primarily Elliott Wave and various other indicators (OB/OS,momentum ,divergences,sentiment). Here let me state categorically that no one and no system can call all the turning points.There are price levels favorable or risky.Gold at this time is tracing out a corrective wave called DZ(double zig zag). This is my interpretation and given that at any time there are more than one count ,others may reasonably disagree with me .If correct,this DZ has ended or close to such (may go to around 1540 area before being invalidated.Additionally all other technical indicators are favorable. Bottom line:the next significant move for gold and miners is to the upside and will reward those who accumulate ( outright buy not on margin) shares such as NUGT.
there is very little fear in the markets over the last 6 months. vix was down to 12.08. The fear trade now is not being in the market. Gold has run up for the last 5 years based on looming inflation from fed stimulus. It hasn't happened. Yet anyway. investors have been unwinding there gold positions based on that and going into the general stock market. I have heard there is support at 1520- 1525 and around 1450.?? As long as the cost of mining keeps going up with smaller reserves. Gold mining companies need a higher and higher gold price to be profitable...Inflation or deflation will happen someday. Just not this year. IMO
I cannot disagree with anything that you have said in this post. You are making a case for lower gold prices on fundamental grounds,although ,on the opposite side of your fundamental case is Bernake's continuing debasement of $US and world central banks being aggressive buyers of
physical gold. My comments on gold and NUGT however are based strictly on technicals.While there are possible Elliott counts that can support much lower gold price, I believe that a "bounce" to the 1640-1650 area is a good possibility from here. When,if, we get there and based on the Elliott waves that got us there we can reevaluate. In my opinion being bearish on gold at this time is unwise.