Alex, I know you took my word, but here is something more solid...
This is copy/paste from one of my very first posts on this board on 6/21/12. Can you imagine abuse I, a newcomer to the board with no credibility, had to take in the midst of cheer leaders who had no doubts at the time NUGT was going straight to $50. If this was 14-15 century they'd burn me at the stake for this "blasphemy ".
trader537 • Jun 21, 2012 2:16 PM
I can see GDX @ $32.50, the only solid support I can see, that's about 22% off the current price of $45.35.
NUGT is $11,47 as I write this. It's a 3x GDX. Prices of leveraged ETFs are very difficult to compare with "straight", because of the decay and higher cost.
Try to figure the price of NUGT when GDX will lose 22%.
I figure about $5-6 bucks, might very well be wrong.
Speaking of decay, assuming GDX gets down to this level, it has to lose 12.75% from here. Neglecting decay,
it would be 38.26% reduction on NUGT, or the price of it would be...$3.31. I know it sounds ludicrous or maybe, just may be, as ludicrous #$%$6 sounded in June 2012?
Please don't burn me at the stake.
NUGT went on to reach almost $18.95 three or four months later. I don't think shorting NUGT on 6/21 was a good decision whatsoever. Sorry. You would have made more money going long at that point than what you have made short since then. Not to mention tying up your money for so long.
I presented a long term outlook, I never suggested to short it at the time. A long term outlook to the upside or otherwise does not suggest for a second that there will not be short term opportunities in the opposite direction, If you read my previous posts, my long term bearish outlook didn't prevent me from covering my short positions in July on at least three technical indicators showing temporary bottom and going long at the end of the month after the next higher low. Contrary to the most of the other traders on this board I got out @ $17.90, after I posted on this very board my analysis explaining the reasons to get out. For proof you can search this board for "Upper Bollinger Band has been punctured". I analyzed the daily and weekly charts with my conclusion that the miners will resume their descend from those levels. The problem was - not too many people believed it. I've been told that BBs have no bearing on real life and are irrelevant and I am a total idiot believing in them. Little did they know....
I am a retiree from a career as a mental health professional. Having the free time to browse message boards and my life long interest in evaluating motivation for human behavior I have come to the conclusion that there are three different types of contributors.1. the vulture this is the the despicable animal that preys on the basic human emotions of fear and greed in others for personal gain. Otherwise known as pumper and trasher.
2. the thinker this individual with no major personal "complexes" evaluates data from his own and others' research without emotion or preconceived ideas and comes to conclusions that increase chances for success.
3. the follower has no personal opinion but almost blindly follows the vulture or the thinker. This method leaves success to pure luck (rarely even vultures are "right")
Now you may want to ask what has motivated this post. The hope that ,if any follower reads this ,he/she may switch to becoming a thinker and thereby reduce the food supply of the vultures. This will lead to more successful traders and minimize stock manipulation. If no followers read this or read it but do not critically reflect on its message ,then I have just "wasted" 15 minutes of my time and I have plenty of free time.And,if nothing else , maybe I have provided some humor to thinkers like yourself.
Keep up the good work
Ever since you posted this I was thinking there was a fourth kind of posters. It took me time to identify them. They are no vultures who pursue some personal/corporate end, they are most definitely not thinkers/analysts, and they are not harmless followers.
I am not a mental health professional, I am simply mental, so I'll simply call them "wannabe". With no background, or any meaningful experience, with some money, some time to spare for the posts, and a mouth big like a load speaker they bombard the boards with their prevailing trading strategies which include but not limited to:
1. Wishful thinking
2. Self-serving logic
3. Fortune cookie wisdom
4. Crystal balls hidden in the closet
5. Marginalizing people on the opposite side of the trade.
No wonder most of the people lose money on the markets. Very sad.
Posts containing a single grain of rationality are very few and far apart.