$121 is just GS having a little fun over the weekend
Am I along in this room in thinking that all this talk about Russia did this and Georgia did that is just retarded?
Listen, here's the thing ... Russia's a rational player on the world stage and if you think that they're over there carpet bombing oil teminals I'm not sure what to say, except that you're presence in the markt is appreciated by those on the other sides of your trades.
Russia was f*cking up Georgia when the markets opened on Friday and they didnt flinch all day. Bush was sitting next to Putin at the opening ceremonies of the Olympics last night.
The US has military personnel stationed in Georgia, presumably at the same bases Russiais pummelling as we speak, but you havent heard anything about US troops stuck behind lines or in danger.
(whisper) Now, I know why this is the case but you have to promise not to tell anyone ... its because China, the US, Saudi Arabia, Western Europe, all the central banks, Ukraine, the heads of the major investment banks and the President of the Boy Scouts all knew about this before hand.
That 121 is just GS fucking with your moron counterparts around the world who are getting suckered into going long oil in a panic to hedge those short oil positions that will seem like they're going down the tubes until about 9:40 monday morning.
Just to let you know. I am one of the people that ignored Russia and Georgia all Friday because I thought it was a small meaningless skirmish. If I had realized it was turning into a full scale war, I definitively would have traded differantly.
My view of the conflict has now completely changed. This is serious:
1) It has turned into full scale war. Thousands are dying. "The city of Tskhinvali no longer exists. There is nothing left. It was wiped out by the Georgian military"
2) Russian ships are blockading Georgia. This will disrupt trade in the region (including oil).
3) Georgia is a key transit point for oil from the Caspian region destined for Europe and the United States. Crucially, it is the only practical route from this increasingly important producer region that avoids both Russia and Iran. if BTC pipeline is put out of commission for several months, it will hurt the global supply of oil. Alternatively, if Georgia comes under Russian control, it will increase political tensions as all practical oil routes from East to West will be controlled by Russia or Iran, giving those two oil producing nations more control over the global supply.
4) Small wars have a habit of getting bigger. Util the fighting dies down, there exists the risk of a wider conflict.
Make no mistake. People like me who ignored Georgia on Friday are not going to ignore it on Monday. Oil is short-term oversold, and this is just the excuse it needs for a vicious, short-squeezing rally.
Press over the weekend is focusing on maintenance issues with United 737s. Telegraphing the fairly easy move lower for Monday. Throw in the fear of a full scale war between Russia and Georgia and oil up, United could be back to 8-9 by the afternoon.
Please, when the market is in for a rally it does not matter what happens in Russia. It's not in the US and we get most of our oil from the Middle East and Africa. We r going higher for a few more weeks.