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Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • tigeract641 tigeract641 Sep 12, 2006 10:22 AM Flag

    what happened in NEW YORK ??

    something was not right. usually stocks go up after such a meeting. if all is well then there are no buyers and the MM is making a clean sweep of the stops. IMO. any comments appreciated.

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    • Sounds like someone gave a little inside info to one a fund manager. I can't believe this shit goes on like it does. I can't believe i was stupid enough to stay in it.

    • I've been thinking more about this...

      The volume is disturbing. However, I still suspect with the timing that this happened because the stock was viewed as falling out of favor due to the peace talks and NOT something more sinister (hopefully). At this level it is value priced and we are clearly seeing larger block buying.

      The winds should change eventually, and may be sooner than we think. For example less than two months ago NO ONE wanted to buy COGO for $9, after a fall from $16. It was beyond painful. Now it is almost $14 and I believe this is primarily due to the sector coming into favor, simply. Looking back, anyone who was a buyer at $9 is very very happy now. Anyone who sold....

      The 'great' thing is that when these babies reverse, you can get a 10-20% pop from short covering alone.

    • Looks like institutions are buying today from what appears to be retail sellers.

      I track the OTC stocks' institutional support on the NASDAQ site. Institutional ownership as a % of shares outstanding fell at the in July but has since been going back up. To illustrate, the week ended June 30th institional holders owned 41.51% of outstanding shares, the week ended July 28th institional holders owned 26.24% of outstanding shares and the week ended September 1st institional holders owned 31.61% of outstanding shares.

      I'm a PNF chartist so I'm out on a move below $7.00 which would be a trend reversal from positive to negative. Got in at $8.60 going with the odds it would hold a double bottom at $8.50. In the house of pain right now but expecting pleasurable days ahead.

      • 2 Replies to sparky19909
      • Thanks for the info on more institutions buying more.

        I saw on Yahoo Finance that institutional buys were up around 17% increase last qtr.

        Agree that no apparent insider sells makes this recent
        retail paranoia seem unfounded.

        Yes, maybe housing cooling is some of the light retail
        or momentum gamers bailing, and the WSJ had a note that not all security went nutso after the WTC plane crashing...

        but our earnings and guidance are good

        and I expect next wks earnings should be good as well.

        As I am in Investor and not a trader,

        if any selling on the news occurs

        I'll just add more to this my 2nd largest invesment
        behind BMRN.

        Good Investing Longs


      • The contract with ADP is the next leg-up in growth. Has the material slowdown in new housing starts especially in non-protected residential cities like Atlanta, Dallas and San Diego impacted installations? How many of us plan on retro-fitting ADP security systems into our homes this year? I'm inclined to think real estate developers are the buyers of Napco and a slow down is inevitable. Not the end of the world but enough for the mo-guys to sell. Second, the quarterly estimates is 18 cents but the same period last year was 16 cents. If they make the quarter it's ugly 12.5% earnings growth. If they beat 18 cents and don't up the guidance it's ugly too. Either way I puked it yesterday for a 12% loss from a recent buy. I like the story long term but I'm on the sidelines going into tomorrow's earnings release.

    • I've thought the same thing...

      My best guess re this is that with 'peace breaking out' there was a sell off, and the whole thing just snowballed to ridiculous proportions (stops, shorts, panic, etc)

      If I'm right, I believe that any sell off was totally justified. Terrorists and other baddies aren't going away...

      Note that mgmt hasn't sold ANY shares this quarter (that we know of). this is actually unusual and seems like a very good sign.

      If anyone gets a hold of IR, please do share.

    • This is brutal.

    • I left a message this morning to the Executive Suite
      at 631-842-9400.

      The Receptionist was clueless as to who covers Investor Relations, so she patched me thru to their Admin in the ivory tower... she's out today, but hopefully she responds to voice mail.

      No apparent news, so hopefully it is just portfolio rebalancing and overdone paranoia.

      Lkg at putting in a buy for add'l shares
      if it keeps tanking on no news.

      Note: Institutions UPPED their buying per Yahoo
      about 18% I seem to recall.

      Long and Strong NSSC.

    • i don't know how anyone can attribute this to anything except the fact that at least one of our large institutional holders is dumping.

5.85-0.10(-1.68%)3:06 PMEDT