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Ctrip.com International Ltd. Message Board

  • lewisz88 lewisz88 May 25, 2012 9:37 PM Flag

    Latest article: EJ - Undervalued Growth Stock

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/nowacki-asset-management

    CTRP has experienced strong and consistent growth since it was founded in 1999. And with the likeliness of continued strong growth in China's economy over the next decade, CTRP has very strong growth potential if they maintain a dominant market share.

    My first question when evaluating a business in China is whether or not its financial statements are reliable. This is not an unfair bias against Chinese companies; it is the unfortunate result of reverse-mergers from Chinese-based companies that have reported fraudulent financial statements. CTRP was not listed in the U.S. from a reverse-merger.

    After reading the company's financial reports I have no reason to believe it is misleading investors. One reason is because the growth is very reasonable and the company has recently reported smaller margins. Another reason is that the company breaks down figures from each segment of its operations in greater detail than many publicly based companies in the U.S., resulting in increased disclosure. In addition, the tone of management in the annual report and its unflattering forecast this year gives me no reason to suspect them of manipulation.
    ....

    A good comment on CTRP, after consecutive shaking out weak hands, CTRP is ready to take off with the broad market after long weekend, time to buy and hold.

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    • Oops missed that this was on EJ, which I've liked in the past and traded. And will look to get in...

      I really like the technical improvement on EJ by the way..... very nice action -- needs sustained eating into the May 24 candlestick that had a low of 5.50 and high of 6.50 it looks like.

      I'm doing this quickly since I screwed my initial post up so may be a tad quick and dirty on some of these comments....

      Regardless, if EJ can eat up and hold half of that price action (or more) on May 24, then EJ good to go.
      So you want to see it 'chip away' at that candle of May 24 until it gets and holds $6. If so you are good to go...and I'm like-ing the action in this so far I must say.

      Otherwise on CTRP, to be clear, even though a technician and I would have sold long ago...I know that many folks don't share my appreciation for tech analysis, so when I said 'hold your core unless hurting you too much' essentially I meant that I know you will hold anyway...my point is just don't buy the dribble down on any stock...wait for a confirmation of a bottom.

      EJ is a nice contrast here because it gives all appearances of a definitive bottom being put in, with a reversal candle today (as long as it can continue to work into and take out the price action May 24).

      I need to do more work on this chart (of EJ), but really like the action over past few days. Good luck and again thx for posting hte article...will look at later. Mike

    • I haven't read the article. May read later so thx for posting. The only caveat I have on Seeking Alpha you get some really good folks that have very thoughtful analysis and then you have some outright pumpers that are working at times with others to support a short squeeze in a stock like CTRP.

      That said, Just pulled up the Monthly chart...if you see my previous technical comments in another post they were largely bearish and I still hold largely to that view for a while longer. However, when looking at Weekly & Monthly chart I do see a scenario where CTRP can get its mojo back. In particular if CTRP can stay tightly range bound here as it has done for first couple days of June, and track up later sometime in June to approx $20 plus (or better if it can get up and take out $21 then CTRP will likely do okay from there.

      RIght now it appears to be setting up a bear flag for lower lows. I have a target of $15, perhaps $10 at outside. Another alternative, is that if CTRP does track down from here, and can be contained at $15 or above and then retake $18 plus then that would might setup a reversal of trend. RIght now, I'm tending to think CTRP will do that (and 50-50 it may reach my $9.50 - $10 target).

      The bigger problem in my view is last month's volume -- it was larger than the July 2008 volume and at a lower low. Now technicals are confirming that this was continued distribution.

      At a certain point value investors will come in. Not sure where. Today's action though printed a bullish engulfing candle on yesterday's action. However it tested the underside of the 9 ema and puled backed. If it can pop over today's high, then take out $19 at the 20 moving average, then $20 next stop at 50 day.

      Underlying technicals though tend to indicate that it will track along the declining 9 ema generally that it it at the top of today's action. Regardless, if you get a pop into $19, then $20 sometime soon then those very technicals will correct (and at same time indicate some buying pressure for a change).

      Just remember there are lot of stocks with great fundamentals out there. For whatever reason or rationale....Right now the market either doesn't believe those fundamentals will hold for CTRP and some of those other stocks (or they don't care). Likley the later for CTRP. For me, I tend to think we are on the last legs of the downturn here in CTRP and that say in July we may see that upside reversal. But that may a long time to wait for some of the mid to long timers in this stock.

      On hte postive side, technicals are turning up slightly on CTRPs favor. Stochastics are in the 5-15 area. Any nice price push that can be sustained that carries and sustains CTRP over 20 (and more towards 50-80) will indicate that selling pressure is dying up faster than selling pressure coming in. RIght now there are indications that there are more sellers than buyers despite the fundamental growth story. My suspicion is that once the emerging market trade comesback (brazil and China in particular), then CTRP will rip to the upside. So its more of a problem with the world wide markets perception of the trade, rather than CTRP itself I think.

      Hopefully some optimism there, although sobering. Good luck on the trade. If running a core, and not hurting too bad, then a hold okay but don't buy the dribble down to add to that core position. Rather wait for a more substantial pull back to buy in again (say into $15 or $10)....just don't 'average down' here until you see a confirmed bottoming process unfold. You are not seeing it as yet on CTRP (and none in sight for awhile longer I suspect).

    • I have owned this stock long enough to still be up considerably despite the large drop in price,. That being said, can anyone tell me what percentage of the Chinese population are (or will be) in the position to make a plane ticket or hotel reservation online? Despite the burgening Chinese economy, most Chinese still live the life of a poor peasant farmer. Saying there are four time as many people in China as in the US, does not equate to four times the potential business.

    • strongly agree with your comment.

 
CTRP
68.31-0.73(-1.06%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT