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Hanesbrands Inc. Message Board

  • asianbusinessguru asianbusinessguru Sep 18, 2009 10:31 PM Flag

    Bakers dozen reasons to buy this diamond of a company HBI

    1. Beats estimates consistently, clobbers estimates often:
    Surprise % +3.7% +35.1% +160.0% +5.0%

    2. Paying down debt at the rate of about 110 million per year.

    3. Maintaining a strong cash position.

    4. Receivables normal.

    5. Inventory normal.

    6. Payables normal.

    7. Strong, positive cash flow.

    8. We are coming into the holiday season during which the basics will be a magnet to most shoppers.
    Cannot get more basic than underwear for all.

    9. We are coming into the holiday season during which a bit of fun will be a magnet to most shoppers.
    Cannot get more fun than underwear for your loved ones.

    10. $1.95 forecasted earnings. If those surprises continue, that will exceed $2.00 by a significant amount.

    11. Annualized quarterlys tracking to also exceed top line estimates.

    12. Who could argue with this excellent suite of products that already exhude consumer confidence due to their prestigious, and seductive qualities:


    --Hanes
    --Champion
    --Playtex
    --Bali
    --L'eggs
    --Just My Size
    --Hanes Hosiery
    --Barely There
    --Wonderbra
    --Outer Banks
    --Duofold
    --Airé
    --Beefy-T
    --C9
    --Cacharel
    --Celebrity
    --Daisyfresh
    --J.E. Morgan
    --One Hanes Place
    --Rinbros
    --Ritmo
    --Sheer Energy
    --Silk Reflections
    --Sol
    --Sol y Oro
    --Stedman by Hanes
    --Tagless
    --Zorba

    This is the type of company everyone understands.
    This is the type of company everyone can see every day.

    This is a "Warren Buffet" kind of stock.

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    • Just playing devil's advocate here for now (no especially strong views but interested in challenging some of your reasons).

      1 Estimates for this year are 25% down on last year's, not such a tough challenge (okay there is a recession but stock is also at a premium)
      2 Debt is still huge, and interests are only going one way from here
      3 Trading at way too high a multiple of operating cashflow, higher risk
      4 Normal depends on your risk profile, at a querter's revenue, seems higher risk to me
      5 Ditto receivables, 90+ days on hand in a branded range ?
      6 Going in the right direction right now
      7 See 3
      8 Past performance may not be a great predictor of future performance, not out of the woods yet, Bernanke funny money will dry up soon
      9 True before now and still true, not a new mover
      10 Forecasts are just that, not crystal balls

      Beuty is in the eye of the beholder and while right now HBI appears to be in a sweet space, still looks pricey with a pretty weak balance sheet, highly geared in a pre=inflationary, interest hike environment with the US consumer yet to make up their mind if the recession is indeed as over as the talk at the top suggests it is

    • Hey Goodybag, don't LOL me. I posted that I lost $40,000.00 that morning. Of course I was at my second home on an island off the coast of Maine at the time, so it eased the pain. My 20,000 share long position,on occasion, ruffles the hoi pol-loi feathers. Make no mistake "Back up the truck"

    • No, a "Warren Buffet" kind of stock is Hanes biggest competitor - Fruit of the Loom in which Berkshire OWNS and runs. He bought the company while in bancruptcy and provided the financing, but kept it private.

      The entire reason Sara Lee spun this off is it is not a profitable business - the margins are TOO TIGHT.

      Nice research comparison bringing up Warren - golden, indeed!

    • wiseinvestorafterduediligence wiseinvestorafterduediligence Sep 18, 2009 10:36 PM Flag

      HBI should trade well over $25 based on call premiums for April which are going for $235 per contract.

 
HBI
76.53-0.05(-0.07%)Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT

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