I was Short yesterday. I am long today. $450 tomorrow
It's only 17% YTD because it's losing steam while other stocks exploded and the indexes were all higher. Why is that? Because MA has it's run and the price has outpaced its financial value and people have cooled on it. So when the market corrects maybe 10% MA will be back to $400 in a flash. It's not a leader in this market and just went along for the ride this bullish quarter.
The possible reward from today's price is very little but the risk is pretty high.
so what you're saying is that the overall market will pull back 10% and MA will pull back approximately 8% from current levels to $400. That's outperformance and I'll take that! And then I'll add to my long position and when the market comes back MA will go $460-500 range. Sounds good to me.
I do agree that MA's massive 2011 run will probably not be repeated and will cause MA to cool down this year (maybe 30% gain this year), but this won't last forever. In any case it's certainly not dead money. If you want to see dead look at something like RIMM or GE.