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  • DONEDEALER DONEDEALER Aug 23, 2010 9:23 AM Flag

    PSEC is undervalued!

    I am with you. This is undervalued.
    Much of the sell off is due to the perception by retail investors and some on this board that they cut their "dividend". Sophisticated retail investors and institutional investors consider as yield only that which is supported by net operating income. Anything else is return of capital.

    I believe that a double dip recession is about 50% priced into this market even though it is highly unlikely.
    First, all recessions since 1961 and the double dip in the early 80's was preceded by Fed tightenening and an inverted yield cuve. The current spread on the yield curve is less than 4 months ago but is at 275 basis points. Secondly, if a double dip approaches the fed can and will take further aggressive action with quantitative easing and balance sheet expansion. Thirdly, Fed actions would probably be sucessfull.

    Bottom line: market pricing in a 50% probability of a event with a less than 10% possibility.

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