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  • wiseinvestor338 wiseinvestor338 Feb 13, 2012 1:12 PM Flag

    Bought AINV Friday

    Tempting it may sound, especially with a 20 cent div on its ex-div date of 2/15/12 (AINV), it is still better to be prudent to just hold and wait and see how the market will behave after March. The current market looks too much like what happened at the end of last June and you all know what happened after July 5. The current rally may very well to continue to rise until the end of March. But like Jfnh1 had shown more than once, the shipping numbers (probably the rails too) had been dropping. Europe was now doing its own QE, pumping tons of cash into their economy. You will see Euro continues to drop. Things may appear to be very rosy right now but if you examine the daily trading volumes, they are really very low. The current market now actually may not even be directly linked with the economy any more because basically only large institutions/funds were still trading. Small investors had already fled. This Volcker rule may have a big impact on equity in the very near future. To expect this rally to continue after March may just be too far fetched. FSC seemed to have lost its recent momentum even though it had announced its next three months' dividend. It will be interested to see if PSEC can surpass the $11 mark predicted by Wayne. Oil price is fluctuating around the $100 mark but will not stay there too long, if it breaks through $110, it will continue to rise. In five years, gas price will definitely reach or surpass $5 a gallon. Some already predicted it would reach $4 a gallon before the end of this year. Inflation will be rampant. Unfortunately, income of most Americans will remain stagnant and their purchasing power will further erode. No matter who will be elected to be the next president this year, they will not be able to have a long-term solution to turn around the economy during their term(s). With the continued rise of our national debts, with %debt of GDP closer to that of Spain, it does not bode well for the prospect of the market nor the economy. China has its own BAD debts to handle and they would become very reluctant to bail out US and Europe, sooner or later in order for the FED to finance our debts, they will have no choices but to increase the interest rate of future debts to be auctioned in order to attract buyers. To keep the interest rate at zero will have long-term adverse effects on growth and US may face same fate like Japan has been suffering in the last 20 years. Our market may be equally stagnant like theirs.

8.47-0.09(-1.05%)Apr 27 4:00 PMEDT