Not necessarily, if PSEC stays below $11 before its next ex-div of 4/26/13, then the possibility of it continues to drop to or below $ 10.60 will be excellent because by early May, its 50 day MA will drop below its 200 day MA, the death cross will occur, which will signal another decline for PSEC.
So far, in 2013, PSEC did not really perform that well, even with its seemingly high yield (currently 12.18%), if you go to Yahoo's Historical Prices chart for PSEC, review the adjusted daily closing price (adjusted for dividend and split) since Jan. 2, 2013, the first trading day of the year, using yesterday's adjusted closing price of 10.89 as its current price, going back on each trading day's adj closing price all the way to Jan. 2, then you may be surprised to find that there were only 12 trading days on which you would buy PSEC at their adj closing price, you would still be coming out ahead. The best day to buy, incidentally, will be Jan. 2, 2013 with an adj closing price of 10.69, deduct that from yesterday's adj closing price of 10.89, only net you a 20 cents total gain, that is after you had received three months' dividend of about 33 cents. Therefore, you actually lost 13 cents. In short, your total return on PSEC in this year, even with its above 12% dividend, is significantly lower, probably around 7.38% so far.
Interestingly, if you would compare it to a lowly and boring preferred stock CEFs, JPC, one of the "safer" stocks I bought for my portfolio, currently only paying 7.39%, yet if you go to its Yahoo historical prices chart, using the same criteria as used on PSEC, you would be surprised to find out that there were large number of trading days on 2013 on which if you bought JPC, you will have a better total return even though its yield is significantly lower than that of PSEC.
Keep telling yourself that when we get like 2-3 straight up days at some point - leading to +0.40/share to the stock price. I think the selling in PSEC is a function of #1 Secondary or ATM offering fears, and #2 institutional selling by those effected with the Wells Fargo downgrade. #1 fear is going to end soon because there will not be another offering that drops the price significantly, it will mostly all be ATM offerings in the future and over time all above NAV. I expect origination to slow in the future and net investment income to stabilize between $0.30 to 0.35 per share.
You may say in 2012 PSEC performed very well and that is true. However, if you compare the adj. closing price of both PSEC with that of JPC in the beginning and end of 2012, you may be surprised, once again, to find that the total return of JPC, a lowly pref. stock CEFs actually outperform PSEC, a kingly BDC. Quite weird, right?