after its ex-div date, with Q1 GDP at a disappointing 2.5%, not the 3.2% expected by some over optimistic financial experts, consumer confidence is now at its lowest with no ready consumer dispensable incomes available to expand the economy, thanks to the Sequester and the 2% payroll tax, GDP of Q2 and Q3 will be 2% or less at best, housing will slow down, where can the stock market go? Nowhere but SOUTH. Now with so many small investors who are so afraid they will miss the recent rally, they now started jumping back in, buying stocks at exactly the wrong time, chasing yields by buying high risk high yield stocks non-discriminatively, without realizing that from May to October, the stock market rarely moves and in the first two years of a presidential term, market usually drops, and without a meaningful market correction, that has basically increased the chance of a major stock market crash to happen between July to Nov, 2013 that much higher. The longer this recent rally drags on and makes new highs, the more harsh the next market crash will be, probably 15% or worse and it will be a blood bath for many small investors. Unfortunately, many of them were convinced by either their greed, or desperate needs in obtaining higher incomes and followed the advice of many stock pumpers who kept pumping a stock, like fattening a pig before slaughtering it. Yea, shout your joy now but be rest assured that all BDCs, not just PSEC, will drop like a rock, withing the next nine months. We will see then who indeed are the real investors or just BIG talkers.
The chance of PSEC drops below 10.55 before its next ex-div date is 80% or more, if you look at its last three months' price history, it has been steadily dropping in price and more so after its ex-div date.
"The chance of PSEC drops below 10.55 before its next ex-div date is 80% or more, if you look at its last three months' price history"
And what are the chances for over 11.25?
My view? Last three months history is pretty unimportant. Earnings and general BDC movement (tied to overall market) will control. To go up, earnings will need to beat (very likely in my view) and NAV will have to go up (much less certain, since valuation of assets is unknowable at this point - see last quarters results). As long as earnings in range of dividends of .36/qtr, I will hold/add. It may not be ableto be sustainable, but as long as the dividend seems secure for 12-18 months, I am here.
You forgot something, earnings are coming out shortly and if good the current PSEC ralley can continue up to 11.50 or so before the general market starts dropping later. Obviously, if and when the market tanks 90% of stocks will suffer, everyone knows that. but no one knows when that might happen. Current FED policy is keeping the ralley going and it will take a "Black Swan" event or a change in Fed policy to tank things.