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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • theubiquitousman theubiquitousman Oct 29, 2004 10:48 AM Flag

    New buyout scenario

     

    ECA is selling North Sea assets, going to get out of gulf and concentrate on oilsands and "tight gas". ECA is huge in Jonah field and northwest CO. Maybe they will join with Shell to buy Ultra. Both ECA and RD have excellent understanding of Pinedale. ECA has history of making aquisitions. Someday, someone is going to buy this company. I think ECA did a $2 billion shelf filing not to long ago. They (ECA) will definately be going after somebody in the rockies-SOON- in my opinion. Note: I am often wrong, all this is just one persons thoughts/opinions. A takeover at
    $90 would give the "shorts" something to digest.

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    • theu...I concur...ECA is also in the process of selling their Ecuardorean assets...raising cash...getting rid of debt...they appear to be setting themselves up to acquire another Rocky/Canadian E@P...if not UPL, then some other or multiples 'Tom Browns'...the Buzzard field is a real top notch asset...ECA is a money machine...they can easily handle their debt load...they have to have some other plans than selling assets to reduce debt...

      As for UPL...Bohai will come off easily...to KMG or the Chinese or ???...so how many Billion will it take to buy UPL's Pinedale/Jonah assets?...

      I've been long UPL for several years...and would like to see UPL remain independent, but...

      A question for you option players...If ECA or someone else made a run at UPL...What would be the most profitable UPL options to be invested in?

      thanks...good luck all...

    • Won't happen. UPL will not generate excessive revenue for years, and ALL takeovers/buyouts are driven by current revenue streams, not by reserves still deep in the ground. A fair price would hurt the short-term financials of any suitor.

      I feel a merger is much more likely, one that significantly benefits UPL and its partner. A likely candidate might be Questar (STR), who already has a large gas distribution/sales network in close proximity and working relationships in both the Johah and Pinedale projects.

      • 2 Replies to mdp528
      • Most small E&P companies are built to be bought out. UPL is not one of those companies. Watford has explained on several occassions why shareholders are better off if the company is allowed to develop its world class assets on its own. It doesn't take much to come to the same conclusion on your own. What better stock to own than that of a small company (35 employees!)controlling and successfully developing one of the best gas fields in the United States? If selling out was the best option Watford could have done that a long time ago. In the mean time the stock and company's performance proves that Watford knows what he is doing. Who can possibly argue with management's strategy based on what has been accomplished to date?

        TOTI,
        Andy

 
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