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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • roosterly9 roosterly9 Nov 23, 2012 8:15 AM Flag

    Natural gas prices going to rocket up soo because

    The inventories are dropping fast, last report inventories were even with last years level, meaning production cutbacks and demand increases have wipped out last winter's inventory hangovers, it is only natural that it will not stop here, and when inventories start showing less than last year NG will rocket up, and so will the low cost producers UPL's stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I think NG will fire to 5 too, but not for long (NFL). That is the problem with all these pure play NGs. Watford needs to be nimble and alert to hedge out as far as he can once the price gives a little spike.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • The new problem with "storage" is it does not consider gas sitting in already drilled, and capped wells. There are an unprecedented number of these wells that can be turned on in a heartbeat, like going to the faucet to refill you water glass. Storage= water glass. Drilled, shut in wells = the supply in waiting.

      • 3 Replies to sdsuaztec89
      • I don't think gas in the well is a problem, gas prices have moved up dramatically, but inventories have been accelerating to the downside as well, if your theory was right, you would not see such drastic price appreciation as the gas would have been released to market. Do not forget, gas supplies had moved up for two reason, companies with cash flow problem were selling because they had to, and anciliary gas production fromn oil wells; it seems that this 2 are taken care of. If producers can afford to shutin their well, there is no reason to believe that will start selling at prices that are still below cost of production. All of these assuming you are correct which you may not, nobody realy knows how much gas is shuttin.

      • Bulls and bears have been debating this issue of capped wells waiting to be "turned on" since last spring and summer.How many is unprecedented? The evidence is that the decline in production and storage is a fact.Apparently, the price has not reached a point to tempt the owners to turn them on.Quite a ways to go yet, even if the number of well capped is significant.

      • sdsuaztec89, and they will not uncap those wells until the price of gas reaches the price at which the wells were drilled and become economic.Why sell something for less than the price paid if you are not forced to sell.Natural gas is priced too low.The market and producers are working on the price increase as we speak.The price is going to go beyond $5.00 , and soon.

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