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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • gray1808 gray1808 Mar 2, 2013 6:13 PM Flag

    March weather and natural gas withdrawals from storage

    The week of March 1 - 7 has been much colder than expected in the Eastern US. Last week there was a net natural gas withdrawal of 171 BCF. The 5 year average withdrawal for March 1 - 7 is 74 BCF. Considering the cold weather, the withdrawal for March 1 - 7 could be similar to last week, with a net withdrawal of 170 BCF. Next week, March 8 - 14, will also be very cold and snowy. The March 8 - 14 average withdrawal is only 26 BCF, so there can be another large withdrawal from storage with cold weather. The current 300 BCF surplus versus the 5 year average could be gone by the end of March. If we see a trend of large withdrawals from storage in March, it can also mean that natural gas production is dropping because of the big slowdown over the last 12 months in shale natural gas drilling and the depletion of shale wells which averages 30 - 50% annually. A longer winter in the Eastern US can have a big impact in a hurry on natural gas prices and storage.

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