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Ultra Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • ahande ahande Apr 26, 2013 8:51 PM Flag

    Powerburn over estimates the injection numbers 2-3 weeks out

    I have been reviewing the numbers on Powerburn's site. The numbers are accurate for the current week in question. However, he has been estimating a lot higher for readings two or three weeks out.

    So, for the week of Apr 20-26 (to be reported next Thursday) he had estimated 59 a couple of weeks ago. He has revised it downward to 30. This will be 37 lower than the 5 year average.

    For the week of Apr 27 - May 3rd he had estimated an injection of 104 a couple of weeks ago. Now he is estimating 80. Same for the following week revised downward from 106 to 95.

    The weather for the just concluded week (Apr 20-26) was certainly a factor as it was very cold for a few days. Yet, it can't account for a difference of 29 (his revision).

    I am predicting that it is a combination of the weather and slowing production. I stick by my assertion that EIA is misreporting the production information.

    Now, next week's weather will be interesting. Dallas might break 100 year old cold records.

    Google "Low Rain Chances Tonight, Mild Weekend, Cold Air Returns Next Week".

    If this turns out to be true and we get both the weather (and increased NG use for heating) and some production cuts resulting in an actual injection in the 50-60 range instead of the projected 80 for the Apr 27 - May 3rd, then the Nat gas bears might just throw in the towel as we will probably be about 150 below the 5 year average. I am hoping :-)

    Week Forecast Actual/ Diff 2013 storage 5-yr avg
    3-weeks Forecast from
    ago Now 5-yr avg
    Apr 6-12 29 32 -7 1701 1,778
    Apr 13-19 33 30 -20 1734 1,828
    Apr 20-26 59 30 -37 1764 1,895
    Apr 27-May 3 104 80 11 1844 1,964
    May 4-10 106 95 12 1939 2,047
    May 11-16 --- 110 20 2049 2,137
    May 17-23 --- 103 11 2152 2,229

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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