Thinking of taking my lumps (tax loss) on TBT and buying fewer shares of TMV (but an amount that will recover about the same $) if bonds finally fall. With TBT being leveraged 2X vs TMV 3X, I would have expected to need about 2/3 the # of shares of TMV to do the job. Been watching them move since the recent bottom and (surprised that) it looks like it would take 3/4 or even more. Any insight appreciated.
I think when bonds finally go into bear mode, if you are buying shares, buy TMV because of the triple leverage. If you are buying call options, TBT is the better bet. The TBT options are more liquid and the bid/ask spreads are much narrower as a consequence. I think now could be a good time, since a bullish inverted head and shoulders bottom may be forming in TBT and TMV. You can bu Feb. 25 TBT calls for about $.10 now ($10) per contract.