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Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF Message Board

  • cl97cl cl97cl Nov 8, 2012 7:59 PM Flag

    J, now that the election

     

    is over, how do you see the U S bond mkt??

    C L

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    • Extremely volatile--even more so than now. Outflows from stocks, etfs and mutual funds are the highest they have been over the 12 years of this century right now, while inflows into bonds are at their highest.

      Since everyone expects the worst over the coming 6 months because of a long list of problems like Europe, Fiscal Cliff, etc., I would expect the stock market to make a new high by mid 2013 and TLT to tumble to around 100 or lower. After that I would expect us to enter an Obama depression and stock prices to rival their lows from early 2009. TLT will recover but will disappoint, even as the stock market falls--it may move to highs over 130, but barely if at all.

      Eventually, by mid decade all the money that governments have and will create in the obama depression will drive interest rates and inflation up.

      Right now we are witnessing the end of 30+ year treasury bull market and bull markets don't end without big volatility and huge price swings.

 
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