Technically, on this daily chart, according to my technicals I see a break out to the upside even though it was quite discouraging to have no real follow through today on the upside move of yesterday (4/30/13). However, both yesterday and today leave us above the top line of the BOLLINGER BAND(blue shaded area, BB). Not to mention that the WHEAT FUTURES market is also trading above the 9 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE(red line, SMA) the 20 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE(green line, SMA), and now the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE(blue line, SMA) which I would consider that to be the last area of resistance along with the top line of the BB. In addition to my tecnical bullish view the 9 day SMA and the 20 day SMA are literally on top of each other and both are pointing higher angles upward. The next move that I wouold like to see would be the 9 day SMA to cross over the 20 day SMA as the market traded above the 9.
CL, the surprise for the next months, maybe year will be the weakening of the US dollar which will pressure the high dividend, defensive stocks that comprise most of the major indexes. TMV might even do OK for a while. There is a real bubble right now in utilities, consumer stocks, etc. When the dollar weakens more this will burst the bubble and the money will flow toward commodities currencies, stocks and the commodities themselves. Since we are talking about a bubble the defensive stuff, the move will probably be dramatic. It may be even more dramatic than the shift into commodities from mid 2007 to mid 2008, because there is so much more of a bubble in defensive stocks/junk bonds/TLT, etc.
So there might be a situation that there is not much change in the major indexes but a whole lot of movement within components--similar to what occurred 07-08 before the crash.
"The gold sector is clearly driving a lot of the buying enthusiasm.
The INK Gold Stock Indicator--which tracks insider buying on all Canadian-listed gold stocks and is heavily influenced by junior miners--has now surpassed its March high and is over 1,000 per cent, according to Mr. Dixon.
That's more than 10 stocks with key insider buying for everyone with selling.
The indicator hit an all-time peak of 1,046 per cent last Thursday."
--Darcy Keith, "Junior Mining Stocks See Record Insider Buying", TheGlobeAndMail April 30, 2013.
I'm steadily buying BGEiX and have positions in IAG/GDXJ and GLDX.