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  • brandonuk03 brandonuk03 Mar 27, 2012 9:48 AM Flag

    Another alpha article - sure it will be below 4 tomorrow

    I agree that ARNA is not the most efficacious, but still when compared to a placebo group that received diet and exercise counseling, there was a statistical weight loss to the tune of 18 lbs at 1 year in the lorcaserin group. The parts that impress me most about lorcaserin are the secondary endpoints with improvement in A1C of 0.9 (on par with current diabetes meds), blood pressure improvement, fasting blood sugar -27 points, decreased weight circumference etc. There are also studies in the pipeline that show it decreased nicotine cravings in rats (Maybe it will in humans also?)

    Overall, marginal efficacy, but safer than the others in the pipeline right now. I plan to hold and hedge my bets. Taking half off the table going into May 10th ADCOM. Previous vote was 9-4, but this time around they did more studies refuting cancer risk, did cardiovascular safety trials and did another phase 3 Bloom-DM trial. All of this + the fact they gave VVUS a 20-2 positive vote for what IMO is a higher safety risk drug, leads me to believe ARNA should show favorably as well.

    Hopefully with those earnings, I plan to increase my stake in Trius.

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