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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

  • paxbuv paxbuv Mar 21, 2012 4:17 PM Flag

    Another alpha article - sure it will be below 4 tomorrow


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    • I agree that ARNA is not the most efficacious, but still when compared to a placebo group that received diet and exercise counseling, there was a statistical weight loss to the tune of 18 lbs at 1 year in the lorcaserin group. The parts that impress me most about lorcaserin are the secondary endpoints with improvement in A1C of 0.9 (on par with current diabetes meds), blood pressure improvement, fasting blood sugar -27 points, decreased weight circumference etc. There are also studies in the pipeline that show it decreased nicotine cravings in rats (Maybe it will in humans also?)

      Overall, marginal efficacy, but safer than the others in the pipeline right now. I plan to hold and hedge my bets. Taking half off the table going into May 10th ADCOM. Previous vote was 9-4, but this time around they did more studies refuting cancer risk, did cardiovascular safety trials and did another phase 3 Bloom-DM trial. All of this + the fact they gave VVUS a 20-2 positive vote for what IMO is a higher safety risk drug, leads me to believe ARNA should show favorably as well.

      Hopefully with those earnings, I plan to increase my stake in Trius.

    • Actually, it was a well balanced article citing both the plus and negatives to TSRX. The major thing any investor should consider is that TSRX is undervalued right now. Multiple analysts within the past 2 weeks have put price targets at $12-14. This stock should be $6-7 range right now which makes it a minimum sale price at 20% discount. If tedizolid makes it to market and the gyrase program shows promise, look for this stock to hit mid 20s if its not bought out before then.

    • I went long for about 7000 shares of ARNA and was rewarded nicely today. I would like to move some proceeds into TSRX, but I feel that we're trading sideways until later this year.... sigh. My money can probably do more for me elsewhere right now.

    • I plan to hold TSRX for a long time and agree with you 100%.

      ARNA good for trading. I would not hold for the binary events. JMO

      People can lose more pounds by eating correctly. That one was not horribly efficacious from reading up on it before. Several diet pills and cocktails cause serious problems. Risk / Benefit questionable. Us pharmacists and pharmaceutical scientists know these things.

      SNTS and AFFY I have been making a killing on.

      Just started buying RGEN low $4's. They already have rev's. PDUFA in June.

      SNTS has some events this fall. PDUFA for Uceris UC treatment and Phase 3 results for Rhucin for acute treatment of HAE. Rhucin already selling in EU and Uceris known formulation and active ingredient, so likely approval, IMO. SNTS has already 4 marketed products and is profitable. GLTU brandon

    • Do you have the name for Synavive (prednislone 2.7 combo with dipyridamole 360 XR) already on the market or any variations of them?

      Yeah, I don't think Exalgo and the eye drop are huge for them, just smallish royalty. Synavive, is more of a catalyst.

      Pain treatments, Z160 and Z944 are the prize IMO, but it will take time to move through trials.

    • Yeah, not a great a day, but I didn't want to have a knee jerk reaction. Why did it fall today? This is common pullback.

    • Unfortunately, I don't have any ARNA (wish I had some @ $2), just here for TSRX. It seems like a nice run-up, but MAY 10 is a ways off. Do you like the chart? I know you mentioned technicals in some of your posts. Don't listen to me, I don't get them all right, and technicals can be wrong (sometimes), anything can happen. I just try to figure it out, and then buy or sell. VVUS showing some cracks today. ARNA went from $2 to over $3 very quickly.

      I wish TSRX went from $5 to 7.5 or $8 in 7 days (similar magnitude to ARNA move). TSRX will have it's day.

    • mikeadd Apr 18, 2012 4:45 PM Flag

      should be some upside N near future. this is 2 sweet a deal at this 5.04 pps. Institutions just waiting till trials are closer to completion and/or beginning to invest IMO. this one is not a 1-trick pony like so many. good 4 long-term buy and hold IMO

    • Dipyridamole is generic for persantine. There is not a combo product currently on the market, but what I was getting at is that by first glance, you can mimic the formulation by using generic glucocorticoids, prednisolone included in combo with persantine and adjust dosing based on kinetics.

      Personally, I hate when biotechs aren't inventive and basically just come out with a modified product that is already on the market and in the case of Exalgo, charge a 7500% increase in cost. There's a lot of drugs I personally feel I could combo up that are already FDA approved, but it only drives up health care costs.

      I'm still long TSRX, but recently sold my stake to move more into ARNA. ARNA seems to be having good support above $3 on lower volume. An analyst recently affirmed what I also believed and stated odds are 80% approval for ARNA and most believe a price target on approval of $10-12 per share. Trading at $3.07 now, that's nice potential even if you buy in now. I'll likely take some off the table along the way and invest back into TSRX. Only invest what you're willing to lose though!

    • Charts don't lie, big gap on ARNA chart needed to be closed in low $2's.

      TSRX already corrected, upside coming.

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