I think the guy was legit, which is kinda sad that he missed this run. However, if you knew what you were investing in, you would have thought about the following:
1) Sold at 52 week lows. Is this a good idea?
2) ATM financing deal was announced in August and exercised once in October. The day following the exercise, the price went up.
3) Phase 3 data coming soon provides a nice catalyst.
4) Technicals pointing to oversold territory and favored long trades (1-6 week)
5) Why does someone have 9300 shares on the bid at 4.50 after the dilution was announced and why am I the only person selling in after hours? Guy was thinking, "Nice, I'm the first one to get out before this tanks tomorrow." LOL
I pulled about 30% of my shares out around 5.12, then the stock shot to the 5.20s, then pulled back. Hopefully it keeps running, but I've leveraged some free cash in case we see another dip in the 4's. Looking at starting a position in HPTX (PDUFA catalyst Jan 21st I believe). Trading close to 52-week lows.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I appreciate everyone's concerns and speculative analysis on why I made the call to sell in after hours. Yes, i am the Troll ;0 you are seeking. Alas i have nothing to add other than please do not feel sorry for me. The stock market is a wonderful game and i have learned over the years to not let my highs get too high and my lows too low. I had only taken a position in TSRX in the previous 36 hours and was happy selling AH taking a small profit without having to be at all concerned with how the market would react to the dilution. I fully understood the risk / reward and like all calls, it was a gamble that in hindsight was flat out wrong. I had been a previous shareholder in TSRX and knew the entry price was outstanding, ST indicators were all positive , etc but gambled that at a minimum the stock would continue drifting and if it didn't react negatively i could at least get back in reasonable close to where i exited. In essence i got too greedy and it turned out to be the catalyst to start the RUN. Trust me, i have been on the wrong side of trades that have led to the missed "opportunity" of $100,000's and have learned to accept the market for what it is and not let the misses weigh me down no matter how big or small. That being said, it takes me about 24 hours to get over the $100,000 misses :) Thankfully i have been on the other side more often than not where the opposite is true and nothing is sweeter. I am typically a buy and hold guy but as of Dec 1st I moved 90% to cash to wait out the election / fiscal cliff, tax selling season and am just day trading for something to do. The good news i did move my money into VELT yesterday and was able to buy on the dip, $3.68, and sell at the peak, $3.89 for a nice 6.4% gain which at least offset the Friday run in TSRX. Monday will be another day.
FYI, If it drops back below $5 in the New Year when i move back into the market i will be a long term buyer. The real opportunity will not be $4.50 to $5.. it will be $5 to $10.... I have no problem giving up 10% to make 90%.
Alas I am the Troll you are seeking.
Please don't feel sorry for me. 100% cash right now and only day trading until after cliff / tax selling etc. Only started a position in TSRX the last 36 hours and was happy leaving with a small profit. Will look to take a position in TSRX in the New Year after the dust settles, Hopefully i can buy back in sub $5 ... the lost opportunity from $4.50 to $5 will be more than offset by the gains from $5 to $????... Big fan of TSRX LT, looking for quick in and out trades right now and obviously didn't predict the quick run up in TSRX.
In the meantime I moved into VELT on Friday at $3.71 and it is sitting at $4.49 with momentum as I type so i got my 20% POP anyways...selling at $4.40 if the momentum stops.
Tell KItty not to fret and i am starting to climb back down the bridge...
Yeah, that's about a $4,000 opportunity cost. People have to learn that in investing you have to look at the bigger picture and stay long. Day trading is generally hard except when you're given some rare perfect situations. In terms of his/her sell at $4.50, a few things would have caused me to think twice. 1) We knew Trius had the ATM. It wasn't a secret and is already semi-priced into the share price. I assume, they'll dilute out and raise all $25 million over the 24 months because they want the flexibility to raise when they need it and not feel rushed to partner to raise money. 2) ESTABLISH-2 has a high chance of success, then the partnership discussions will start moving faster and an announcement likely in Q2. 3) You're selling at 52 week lows? Usually never the best time to sell, but to accumulate. 4) The ask/bid spread is usually large in after hours above and below the closing share price with Trius. If someone is willing to absorb about 10k shares on the bid after that dilution was announced, I'd ask myself why? 5) Tax loss selling combined with ATM was the answer for the decline were scratching our heads about. 6) Know your stock. 10/9 they tapped into the ATM and the share price went up in the days following the sell to Terrapin. Why would things change now? 7) Analysts all have BUY ratings on Trius with an $11-12 average target. Does selling at $4.50 sound like a good idea? 8) You can check after hours volume. If you're the only one selling that day in the after hours, you must be freaking out for no reason. 9) Beavertail has increased his bashing and invited friends to this board. Always a good sign good things are coming when bashers show up. 10) History tells us based on the ESTABLISH-1 trial that there is good likelihood of a run-up into phase 3 data.
Sentiment: Strong Buy