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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

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  • pylesm pylesm Jan 19, 2013 8:03 PM Flag

    Share Price After Dilution

    I'm hoping to see 5 - 10% before reporting of top line results of the phase III trials. Sound plausible?

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    • Sometimes the market is not rational. In this case, the underwriters are getting one heck of a deal. Investor sentiment prior to the dilution was mixed. Many wanted in, but feared dilution was near, so they stayed away. I was in the crowd that believed they would wait until after data to raise, but from what I'm hearing many biotech CEO/CFO fear financing crunches should the debt ceiling issue in Washington not work itself out around the same time data is being announced. With Trius having about 2 years of cash burn, they can seek the best deal for partnerships. Now that the dilution is over and Trius has around 100 million in cash + Bayer milestones + European deal eminent, there's no reason to be afraid of getting in at these levels.

      The stock itself is undervalued at a market cap of 200 million considering it's low risk with 1 phase 3 trial being under it's belt and operating under a SPA with the FDA. Average analyst target using discounted cash flow models is about $12/share. Granted, they will have to adjust for dilution, so roughly 10.40/share.

      Also I believe the underwriters will gobble up the additional shares too which is a bullish indicator. They diluted around 9 million shares last January and the stock recovered in the days following the dilution.

      Most analysts feel Trius can reach 350-400 million in peak sales based off the acute bacterial skin and soft tissue infection indication. If they get pneumonia and bacteremia, that should double peak sales data presenting an undervalued scenario form where this stock currently trades.

      As far as a run-up goes, I'd look for low to mid 6's with a pop to mid 7's on positive data. Also if there were to ever be a buyout, I would think it would occur after data. Cubist is looking for companies like Trius to acquire.

      Disclosure: I'm long Trius, this is my own personal opinion and I'm a pharmacist.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy