Pfizer is getting out of what TSRX has, so they will not be interested. Cubist would be very interested in what TSRX has....From what im hearing from the phase 3, and beyond...Things are going very well! Please dont ask me how,what,where...Lets put it this way. Im in at $6.60 (13,500 shares), and I bought another 1500 shares today. Never thought I would be buying at $11.52, but with good reason! GLTA
Pfizer will not buy TSRX. They know that pharmacy directors worldwide will be using for MRSA the next 20 years: generic linezolid.
Ask PFE, Forest, Cubist, Astellas if it's hard selling their MRSA products against a 70 year old hard to dose nephrotoxic vanc that even today has 82% of the MRSA market?
You think it's tough selling against generic vanc? Try selling against generic Zyvox!
Let enjoy our profits and I think this show can reach $20 by Christmas, but the product will never gain more than a 1% share.
Castle115rock in some ways YOU are CORRECT such as Teaching Hospitals w/ strong ID departments who RESTRICT ABs and Pharmacies looking to save money....
TSRX is also an ORAL (PO) and your scenario does not cover the OUTPATIENT MARKETS which are huge.There are many sexamples of this in Antibiotic History such as Cipro and Azithro...both were supposed ID niche plays and both were restricted in Hospitals initially but the RETAIL FLOODGATES opened over a short time and SALES took off to BLOCKBUSTER in both!
If TSRX can penetrate the INS PLANS pre launch and not post launch and get into favorable 1-2 TIERS than one could see the MRSA niche in Hospitals easily overcome by a very strong OUTPATIENT RETAIL MARKET! TIER 3 would not be good..I do not see this because Tedi is so neat a drug...in skin its 6 pills/days vs 20 pills/10 days w/ Leni and there are no interactions w/ MAO inhibitors...this is very key and Docs will love this benefit....the outpatient resistance of MRSA is very acute now and centers will adopt Tedi quickly..shorter courses of Tx only assure compliance and even less Resistance...
For the record, I started buying TSRX early last Summer and hold a small position of 6K shares net $2.75/share and I'm now retired US Pharma 6 years having spent 33 years in US PHARMA and I sold all the mainstay IV/PO Antibiotics in my Career for Bayer and BMY....
You do make a compelling argument if TSRX was only IV..as I fought the ID wars all my career w/ Anti Pseudomonal Aminoglycosides, Semi Synthetic BS pens, Cephs, and Quinolones....never had a Macrolide though I know em well...
BTW I wish to apologize to the TSRX board for KellyZZZZZZ who followed me over here from the CLDX Board where I spend 95% of my time posting..having taken some CLDX profits last year and started a position in TSRX....I kept TSRX a secret over there until recently but now the Flood Gates have opened and all FISH swim in...even the nasty bottom feeders like Kelly ZZZZ..LOL!
Ted will be "standard of care". It can be given orally, keeping the patient at home instead of the hospital at less dosage/frequency levels, shorter time, better efficacy, safer with fewer complications and will be used for more indications. As long as the federal government and Obamacare will pay for it.
From Public Med 2008:
Vancomycin has been the drug of choice for treatment of MRSA in the critical care setting. Recent data showing vancomycin resistance, increasing numbers of MRSA isolates with higher vancomycin minumum inhibitory concentrations, and an apparent increase in vancomycin clinical failures have brought vancomycin's utility into question. A variety of treatment options for MRSA are available. Quinupristin-dalfopristin was the first alternative to vancomycin. However, its safety profile and potential for drug interactions limit its use. Linezolid has been shown to be effective in the treatment of pneumonia and skin and skin-structure infections due to MRSA. The drug's potential to cause bone marrow suppression limits its use, especially in treatment durations extending beyond 14 days. Daptomycin has been shown to be effective for the treatment of MRSA bloodstream and of MRSA skin and skin-structure infections. Tigecycline is the newest available drug with MRSA activity. It has demonstrated noninferiority to vancomycin in skin and skin-structure infections. However, its role in the treatment of ventilator- and hospital-acquired pneumonia is still unclear.
To me this indicates that there is room for another good antibiotic. If Pfizer has sold $1.5 million, the right pharma can potentially acquire what percent of this market? Remember the key word: resistance. IDs will save the newest for later but it doesn't mean they won't try it. If Trius' antibiotic takes less time to work, it means less exposure to nosocomial infections (hospital acquired)...it's huge in the VA hospitals for example...that is nosocomial.
There might be some other companies that need some new brands. We have all mentioned Pfizer and Cubist. What about some off the wall dark horse picks that are into acquisitions and have EU operations, or maybe TEVA, Astellas (maybe too small)? I don't know maybe at least for EU partnerships?
Sentiment: Strong Buy