the second $1 is for just $10 million in sales. So Cubist would pay out $55 million for $10 million in sales. Makes no sense whatsoever, but I've read the materials a dozen times. Here is what the latest regulatory filing says (clearest explanation I've seen):
Employee Frequently Asked Questions
Trius Therapeutics has entered into an agreement to be acquired by Cubist Pharmaceuticals, a public biopharmaceutical company, for $13.50 per share, or approximately $707 million total up front, plus a contingent value right, or CVR, of up to $2.00 per share, or approximately $110 million, if certain sales milestones are achieved. The CVR will entitle each Trius stockholder to receive $1.00 per share if net sales of tedizolid in the U.S., Canada and Europe in 2016 are in excess of $125 million, and up to another $1.00 per share, paid on a pro rata basis, for the next $10 million of tedizolid 2016 net sales in the U.S., Canada and Europe.
I agree that the narrow sales window between $1 and $2 is interesting. My take on that is that it kind of implies "they" are comfortable that the sales should be right around that area. You do not paint a tiny target whent there is significant uncertainty.
To drill down some, that does imply the targets are quite reachable. So what is the CVR worth? Let us tag $1.00 in 2016, which makes it $0.70 or so now. In case nobody has looked, they can effectively be bought for about $0.20 plus a few months carry cost right now. Might be a trade avaiable if that pre market price holds past the open.
not realy imo! When we launched Cipro in 1987....we booked $75M in 11 months...I think I remember Sales grew to $125M by year 2 and by 6 years out we hit $1B....the CVR only pays on expected performance which is not a hard target imo and it actually front loaded to insure a SUCCESSFUL Launch trajectory...year 2 is just icning on the cake as that number is eclipsed easily to maybe = $200M in sales...heck Bayer alone in Asia will bring much of that $125M...
right now we need to concentrate on what ifs...given WHITE NIGHTS lately Im thinking another offer is in the making...this is too big an UNMET NEED and its never going to achieve big sales in the Hospital like Cubist said their aim is employ their people...yeah RIGHT w/ ID locking this up IV..RESTRICTED in Hospitals...ok?
the Market is outpatient and PO..period..they need Sales Hustlers to run w/ the PC docs like I did back in day!