That is why I am one of the few people around here who is buying this at these prices.
I do think their number is high though. The CVR is not worth $1.20 present value (explanation below). But I do agree with a target over $14.0. $15 makes no sense though, even if you grant them their own $1.20 valuation on the CVR.
As to calculating the CVR value. It is obvious from the structure of the deal that the 2 parties expect sales to hit the $1 level, but the $2 is in question. So let us plug $1.50 in IF THINGS GO AS EXPECTED.
But there is ALWAYS risk at the FDA. SO let us not this down to about $1.10 risk adjusted, in 2/2017. That would be about $.70 present value. Certainly less than Leerink's $1.20, but certainly more than the present market value of $.15 or such.