I think that the lower end casual dining concepts will benefit a lot more than the market expects from dramatically lower gas prices. Just as this sector is the first to suffer from reduced discretionary income, I think it will be the first to benefit from reversal. I don't think the average Chili's and Applebee's customer had a lot of money tied up in the stock market. Granted, a lot of them have had their credit card rates boosted and some of them have lost their jobs, but I think these stocks are oversold.
An additional factor in the mix since my original post is that mortgage rates have dropped dramatically in the past month. If you have any equity in your home, you will be able to refi under 4% within a few months. If you're underwater, you can obviously stop paying altogether and default, then come back into the market and buy the same house cheaper at a much lower mortgage rate. Because there will be absolutely no stigma associated with default when it is clearly the rational option. Or do we really think the banks are going to pass up the chance to lend very cheap money on very cheap houses to 20% of the working population? Not if the Fed can help it.