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DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Message Board

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  • davidcooper38 davidcooper38 Apr 4, 2006 11:02 PM Flag

    Today It's Up / It's Down / Who Cares?

    You make some great points and some not so true points... but I generally like your message. The fact is that the day trading this thing is flat out silly. Maybe trade around your position, but these guys should get bought and don't get too cute and let some chart get you out the night that JNJ buys these guys for $30. DXCM cannot leverage their technology to the extent a JNJ, Roche, ABT even could, and the sale will take place. It's about the price.

    MDT has a similar product that's available in select cities called the Guardian RT. So there is a competitor in MDT. Insurance you say will happen in a month - it will be around a year best case... it's a long arduous process, and to me that's the biggest overhang on the stock.

    These guys don't make money on shower guards, they make money on the sensors. The sensors are $35 each and need to be replaced every 3 days. That's $350/month or >$4000/year per user. The device costs $800. It's expensive. I'm not even going to think of modeling down to earnings as you do but suffice it to say your #s and 10x multiple are absurd.

    I think this is the biggest thing to hit Diabetes treatment in years. Do not underestimate the revenue power of this product or how important it is to the big hitters in med devices (as we know, blood glucose testing is a $6bn market/year!). But be realistic, valuation is decently rich - it's going to be a difficult ramp up for a small salesforce with no insurance coverage and a tough competitor in MDT.

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DXCM
38.43-0.07(-0.18%)Jul 24 4:00 PMEDT

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