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DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Message Board

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  • dxcm_sugar_daddy dxcm_sugar_daddy Apr 22, 2006 8:30 PM Flag

    Listen to Dexcom Webcasts!

    I'm not saying there isn't a need in this market. I am saying that DXCM is highly overvalued and that I don't think DXCM can ramp revenues fast enough, given the issues we've discussed, to justify a market cap of $640 million (current price + additional shares being sold in the current offering.) Device companies sell for 5x revenues or so, so the current valuation imputes revenues, on a discounted basis, of well north of $150-200 million per year--with no reimbursement, big, entrenched competitors, etc. Risk of not delivering is enormous.

    The survey is interesting, but the participants are self-selected, not randomly-selected, which creates huge bias issues. We got the 500 people who represent the target market for initial continuous glucose monitoring products: tech savvy, web-surfing, Type-1 pumpers. A market size of 500-1000 is probably about right for the first few years.

    Have you bought a continuous glucose monitor yet? If so, which brand and why?

 
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