To clarify this post: Therasense may have had dipped down, but it was acquired by Abbott for $1.2 BN (price ~$27), in Jan 2004. The IPO price (in 2001) was $19 (and not$25) and the stock did dip a lot, before the news of the acquisition sent it soaring. I guess, there is hope for Dexcom- but it may be a long haul.
Yes, Dexcom has been around for several years, but Venture Capitalists are driven by greed; therefore, they must have felt that the valuation of Dexcom was going to peak at around $24.
I don't have a problem with the cashing out, but it was the way they cashed out. The secondary offering should have been for the company to expand manufacturing and distribution. Dexcom's take in the secondary offering was only about $25M, while the investors took about $50M. That may sound like a lot, but in the diabetes market it is not nearly enough.
Take for example MiniMed and their insulin pump. It took 10 years before they were able to get reimbursement. MiniMed needed to present each individual case to insurance companies for reimbursement. The same will be true for Dexcom, which will need to handle each case individually since the cost runs about $7K/year.
One thing that keeps on getting lost is the fact that insurance companies will still be paying for test strips. So the device is $7K/year, plus the $1.5K/year on test strips. Sorry, but insurance companies are in it for the money, so don't expect them to jump on the bandwagon and suddenly reimburse this product, particularly without outcome studies (and don't give me the DCCT and UKPDS arguments as those don't hold for this).
So finally, my problem is how quickly the VCs bailed. They saw the top and left quickly. At this point, most don't care what happens with the company as they are probable out.
therasense 25 IPO price Oct 2001
falls to abbaout 5 1/8 a year later
"W.R. Hambrecht downgraded the company, which makes devices to monitor blood sugar levels for diabetics, to "hold" from "buy," citing low visibility and some weak data for July and August. The firm also said it thinks current 2003 estimates are too aggressive."
oct 11, 2002
"Therasense down-$3.37 to $5.16, said Friday third-quarter sales growth, while up 96% from a year ago, is below previous expectations. A third-quarter operating loss of 24 cents a share is expected. Analysts surveyed by First Call expected a loss of a penny a share. The company blamed slow reorders from retailers and wholesalers and promotional costs. It makes glucose monitoring kits."
aahathectchoo ...excuse me
buy out at 27 fifteen months later
makes good therasense to me
6X 250mm est '08 revs = 1.5 b - divided by 26 mil shares = $57/sh buyout in 2008. but the 250mm is just a guess. the 6 bil glucose testing mkt is growing 10% a year.
aaahhh the market...enjoy
I don't know much about Dexcom as a stock to buy or sell, what i do know is that dexcom has been around for a long time, at least 6 years, so insiders selling i would think would be common. Dexcom stock has been a carrot to many people at dexcom so i would expect them to sell. Why would you keep all your stock after years of talk about the payoff for all the hard work.
All dexcom has is there glucose monitor and nothing else, so they are still over priced probably
I am glad someone is protecting the newbies. I have never owned Dexcom, but I am well aware of its shortcomings. In fact I posted most of them long ago.
Those who keep on commenting that Abbott doesn't have a device on the market need to wake up.
1) Abbott has traditional meters on the market therefore they HAVE distribution. Dexcom isn't even remotely close to having distribution like Abbott or Medtronic.
2) The only reason why Abbott's device doesn't have approval yet is that they have been trying to convince the FDA that they should get 'replacement' labeling versus 'adjunctive'. (see earlier posts for explanation). Now with two products in the market, Abbott will rethink their approach and probably will get approval for adjunctive.
3) The good news about this low (but realistic) valuation is that Dexcom is now a takeover target for J&J or Roche.
The other things people obviously didn't look at, which I pointed out earlier:
1) 60+% of the secondary offering was coming from insiders who were cashing out. They took their money and ran!!! What does that say to you about where they think a buyout price is or a successful launch is going to be? They bailed, leaving many newbies with the bag.
2) The downgrade was expected. If you listened to the various conference calls, they mentioned that they never scaled up manufacturing, thus they have not encountered those problems and are probably still making the sensors on a pilot scale.
3) Based on what it took Therasense to break in distribution, if Dexcom isn't taken out within the year, then another offering will be necessary to cover more expenses.
Take it for what it's worth.
No even close. I was the first to call on this board strong sell when the secondary was announced. My sole reason was an intellectual post of my postion at 25.25 which short (fact, check all my posts)!!!
Now, I am protecting newbies to the boardagainst Texan's BS. Another fact, I work for a company that competes against ABbott.