I was doing some research and thinking about buying but looking over there statements they are generating revenues, but the cost of the revenues keeps climbing. The company does not have enough cash on hand to pay off current liabilities. I think there could be a good story here, but it looks like the company will need to raise money in the near future.
I could be totally wrong, but I would like to have a decent conversation covering these topics. I am new to the board and may be overlooking something.
I do think that the product could sell if it were priced realistically and had marketing and distribution to back it up. If it did start to sell, it would have lots of competitors, or at least one of two BIG ones. That would bring the price down, especially for competitors who just use reagent-grade NaOCl to make it.
Marketing and distribution are easy. You just need a multi-million dollar marketing budget and an existing multi-billion dollar distribution infrastructure. Somebody like J&J would have no problem.
Some people think that makes OCLS a buyout target. But if you look at it the way J&J would, you see: some real estate and building(s), some generic equipment, some specialized equipment which has no practical use or value, a few employees which you would probably lay off at some expense, and some trademarks. Looking further into the trademarks, J&J would see that they have about as much brand recognition as could be bought for a couple million dollars. Wrap it all up, maybe $10 million in value if they are feeling charitable. J&J might offer .30 a share.
That's the way I see it anyway.
I'm with you. That said, in the experience of friends in the vet world, the product works well. Perhaps it is overpriced and over-hyped. Perhaps, too, as you say above, the product is made out to be a rare elixir when in fact it can be commonly constituted. That's fine. But if the substance is effective, an equally effective marketing team ought to be able to make it sell.
I was positive long-term on this company about two years ago when it looked like they were stepping up marketing efforts with Cesar Millan (the "dog whisperer") and getting more FDA clearances. From these and other efforts, I had expected sales to really ramp up. It has not. The first deal OCLS had with a marketing company when south, so they recently signed another one and I have yet to see marketing and sales really take off. I too am very concerned that OCLS does not have enough cash on hand to really ramp up marketing to a point where sales really starts to increase.
So while I still hold my shares (and am down quite a bit) I really don't know what to expect. Based on historical performance, I give about 50/50 odds that OCLS could get out of the holding pattern it is in vs. go bust.
I wish my crystal ball was better than that, but that's life.
I have been accused by others on this board for being a basher. I am not. I have no illusion that OCLS's product is nothing more than a very simple product with little to no patent protection, but I also think that a product of this type--with the right amount of marketing efforts--could sell. Coke is basically sugar water with some flavoring (a big trade secret of course) and it sells. Budweiser tastes like crap and it sells. So why not bleach water?? It's possible. But it's that crucial marketing/advertising component that OCLS has still not figured out how to build, and which is not allowing sales to increase.
I don't see cryofthevatos as a "basher" of this company, and I agree with everything that he has said. In fact, the analysis here is quite balanced, and he is dead-on accurate about this company's need for successful marketing. The one difference that I would have with cryoftheyatos' assessment has to do with the product itself. Is Mycrocyn, as it has so often been characterized, just "bleach water"? Well, yes and no. It is "bleach water" in the sense that chemically, it resembles such, but the efficacy of the product is significantly different. Bleach water simply does not have the salutary effects that Mycrocyn does.
I think that if these are the conclusions you have come to after dd there are 2 actions i recommend you to do.
First one is to learn how to evaluate companies market cap better. There are courses for that.
Second one is to stay out the stock market till you do cause you will lose money investing in other stocks.
Ikbro, I don't mean to be harsh on you, but really your estimates are just hype. You change your value of the company based on what? Nothing.
I have defended this company against inger when he puts out disinformation, but you are just as bad with just pure hype.
There absolutely is a good story here. Oculus has a great product line for one single reason: Microcyn and its variations work. Ironically, the veterinary sector has been easier for the company to break into, but we shouldn't be surprised by this. Veterinarians tend to be less tradition-bound when it comes to the medicines that they use. Most importantly, they know a good product when they see one.
Saturation in the human realm begins more slowly. Not surprisingly, the company has had to look abroad to gain ground—and gain ground they have, each year.
The analyst at Seeking Alpha may have overstated Oculus' upside a bit, but there is no doubt but that the upside is genuine. The key is marketing, and for this reason I have my fingers crossed.
Joseph is right. IT DOES WORK. We use it on ourselves and on the dog. When I first got "here", the veterinary use was just starting. Now it seems like it has gained acceptance, since I see it at horse stores, the barn where my kids take riding lessons and at PETCO. I believe the human use will take off too. So, is $1.20 a share worth a chance?????? HECK YEAH!!!!!
I think there could be a good story here, but it looks like the company will need to raise money in the near future.
12/23/11 - Oculus Innovative Sciences, Inc. to Raise Approximately $2.0 Million in Registered Direct Offering