I'm sorry that you lost your job at SYMC. But
when you've to compete with sharks like NETA, there
will always be blood in the water.
your problem of exercising options which are soon to
expire. If there are a lot of people who have such
options than my guess is that the stock will not do much.
Say for example, if there are 100 employees, each
having option for a 1000 shares. This represents
100*1000 = 100,000 shares of SYMC which have to be sold
soon. This puts a downward pressure on the stock to the
exercise price (since below the e.p. the selling pressure
disappears). The pressure will depend on the number of options
to be exercised versus the daily trading volume. If
this ratio is large then the downward pressure will be
significant. If not, then the downward pressure will be small.
With the average trading volume of SYMC around 1
more than 20 days till the end of the
year (assuming that's when your options expire),
100,000 shares will have little effect on the
If you have a rough guess as to the number of people
in your shoes, you can easily estimate the selling
pressure. In any case, I would not wait to the very last
second (would sell at least a couple of days before
expiration). I would select a day just before Christmas when
others are not paying attention to the market. Also,
there is usually a pre-Christmas rally as traders are
in an upbeat move.
I hope that I've been of
some assistance. I deal mainly in options and would be
glad to share any of my experience. As usual, please
be aware that my advice does not come with any
Wishing you the best of luck.
Just heard about the internal re-org today. Not
sure of any of the details. Does Wall Street care? All
I know is that as a former employee (one of the
100+ layed off Sept.29th), I am a bit anxious about
the price hovering just under my target for
exercising my soon-to-expire options. Should I bail out now
and take what I can? Or is there any reasonable hope
of an upturn before year-end?
I use exponential moving averages and so the MACD
that I use crossed over to a sell Dec 2. It doesn't
mean that we have to go down, but rather that we have
lost the momentum to move up for awhile.
Metastock. The package isn't cheap, but it has paid off very
well. I haven't tried any other software.
can tell by my posts I have been so "wishy washy" on
where we are going. Part of the reason is that I am not
all that keen on the SHORT term health of the market
in general. Here is a copy of a post that I made
yesterday on another board.
"Gilbert has made an
interesting point that has been somewhat disturbing in the
back of my mind that I have not commented on. That
being, "if the market behaves". We see that the indexes
are making new highs (or at least attempting to), but
the broader market has not been keeping pace with the
indexes. The top stocks have been propping up the indexes
with the secondary stocks lagging behind.
Specifically, while we have seen three successive new highs,
the McClellan Oscillator has made three successive
new lows, clearly a bearish divergance and a sign
that momentum has been falling. The markets have
previously topped when this has happened, so to see the Dow
having trouble is not surprising. Price is my primary
technical indicator, so I am not selling, but would feel a
lot better if the broader market started to improve.
We are quickly approaching Christmas and New Year's
rally time so it is my "gut feeling" that we will
probably be OK and any pull back will be temporary and a
buying opportunity. Most likely as we get into the
"rally" season, broader market will catch up. Of course
external market forces can definately affect even good
stocks (Impeachment hearings, Iraq, interest rate fears,
earning concerns, worries over foreign currency
devaluations, dips in consumer confidence, triple witching, not
to mention downgrades from analysts especially based
on "this stock has moved up X%, so we are
downgrading the stock", Oh I just hate that one)!"
addition, the Summation Index has just flashed a sell
signal today. Nothing particularly bad about SYMC, but
it is just hard to move up when the market wants to
take a breather. Perhaps the selling we saw in the
market today was enough but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Looking for buying opportunities.
Very good to see
that while SYMC was down, the volume was low. So once
again we see that while investors aren't selling in
large numbers, buyers are not stepping up to the plate
either. Most likely, the Christmas rally will kick in and
with more money entering the market in January we have
a chance to move back up. In the meantime, I look
for consolidation to continue.
Well I'm not sure what this stock is going to do
yet. I did see a crossover of MACD but doesn't look
like a significant sell signal. Price is approaching
20-day EMA however. Volume is still low for any downside
day this stock has which seems to indicate its just
taking a rest. I'm looking for a re-entry point short or
long but don't seem to be getting a signal either
What's your opinion?
As to your comments about
Technical analysis, I agree totally.
Could I have
your recommendation on stock charting software? You
gotta know I'm cheap and don't like the price of any
package I've seen.
Moving averages represent an average of the stock
price over a set amount of time. 50 day represents 50
days worth of stock trading. If you were to look at a
chart you can plot the moving averages on the chart and
see the general trend for the stock.
generally use the 50 day exponential MA (exponential
represents recent days as a heavier weight than first part
of time frame) as a good support level. A strong
stock will bounce off the moving average. If the stock
goes below the average, the moving average will by
definition move down or flatten out since it is an average
of prices where the stock has been. Once the stock
falls below the moving average, the moving average
I also use 12 day and 20 day
exponential moving averages for shorter term trends, but
consider the 50 day to be more important because it
represents a longer term trend (about 10 weeks).
used to use the 200 day exponential moving average for
indexes, such as NASDAQ more than for stocks. Since stocks
declined so much I added the 200 day moving average to
stock charts as well. This represents 9 months worth of
trading so it is really long term.
remains well above the 50 day moving average but barely
above the 200 day moving average.
The action of
SYMC today looks positive.
Great volume (looks
like buyers have stepped in again).
slightly above support/resistance level of about 20.25.
(Might be hard to hold-SYMC closed only 1/16 above
No longer overbought (but it won't take a lot to be
MACD still not a "buy", but this turns
in response to stock movement, so if we can go up
from this support level, this should turn back to the
As far as breakouts above resistance
go, I generally wait three days to see if it is a
"true" breakout. I commit new money if it goes up for
three days with decent volume. Unfortunately for SYMC,
the last time we were above 20.25, the third day
couldn't hold (not surprising, since RSI was so high
(above 70 is overbought). I realize that this means that
sometimes the stock goes ballistic without me, but many
times, after the three days, the stock settles down and
I can get it somewhere near the support
So, now, let's see what happens with Symantec next
week. A couple days of good buying could move us to the
next trading range. Cautiously opptomistic :)
what does the 50 day moving average and the 200
day moving represent? I have been trying to study the
charts, I read this book on TA but I dont get much out of
it, when to buy , when to sell, when to short, I
would appreciate a response, it appears you are
knowlegable in this area. thanks
My main indicator for entry and
exit points is price. We won't know whether we are in
the midst of a consolidation or downtrend until we
move out of this trading range, one way or another.
The reason that I don't sell based on one indicator
is that it allows too much "whipsawing". 18 is good
support and a good place to buy as long as you are
willing to take a little loss if we close below that
level. Right now, I am inclined to not put new money
into this stock until we see that the indicators are
turning up again, or we move above resistance on good
volume. (In this case, we will see the indicators turn up
again). The reason that MACD is now a weak "sell" is that
we are stalling rather than in an uptrend. Same
thing for TRIX turning down.
Right now, I am
just watching to see what will happen. One must
remember that December and January are pretty good months
for the market and since we just moved up so much, so
quickly, it could very well be that we are just stopping
to take a breath. Kind of like we are climbing a
huge mountain and we decided to sprint up to the top.
Half way there, we ran out of steam. If we had gone up
more slowly, we possibly could have kept going, but
since we decided to run, we had to take a rest to
gather our energy for the next run.
By the way,
I believe that SYMC is part of the MidCap 400 so if
funds that follow this index have money large inflows
or outflows, that will affect SYMC somewhat.
I haven't tried any of the correspondance courses.
The real benefit to going to one of Robert's classes
is the interaction with the teacher. I am not sure
if there is any real benefit in the correspondance
class you wouldn't get out of reading the book without
Good luck. If you really
apply yourself to learning technical analysis, you will
find that it pays off well.
I think the holidays put a hold on the action. I
am looking forward to the November numbers from PC
We should see another little run-up after the
November PC DATA numbers are released and the final
confirmation of the QDEK acquisition is announced with future
plans of integration of the Cleansweep product into
Potential highlights for SYMC in
1. The Year 2000 scare is boosting hardware sales
through the roof. This will increase the market for
2. Budgets should increase significantly in the
larger organizations because of the Y2K delimma. Mo
money means mo potential sales.
3. New revenues from
the IBM OEM deal and IBM's entire sales organization
of ~60,000 will be selling Norton AV.
products.(Ghost, Norton 2000, SystemWorks, CLEANSWEEP,
5. The nice tax write off from the QDEK
6. Less competition...big bad QDEK is gone.
1999 is forecasted by many industry analyst to be a
huge year for High Tech.
8. The NETA lawsuit should
come to a favorable end for SYMC.
10. And don't
forget about that never ending option of a buyout. I
would think that CA would do very well to have the SYMC
offerings in their arsenal to attack NETA. Just a
Good luck to all...
continue to post your predictions based on your technical
It is likely that QDEKers have scared off the
Symantec investors who wanted factual
Symantec held up against the overall market drop pretty
well today. Maybe we are in store for another upward
move in the near future.
Could be that we are in for another up move, but
in the short term I see lower prices ahead, perhaps
down to 18. We are now below the 200 day moving
average again, and have fallen below support around the
20.125 - 20.25 area (even though on below average
volume). It could be that we are in for a short term
pullback. A period of consolidation between 18 and where we
are right now would seem to be in order as SYMC was
just plain, "overbought". We have afterall had an
incredibly good run in just a short while. 18 is pretty good
support. A close below this level would not be great,
technically speaking of course for short term traders.
Today 371 April 25 calls traded - all at the ask. A few other calls also traded, almost all at the ask also. This has been the highest call volume in months. Perhaps, an upward move is in the cards.