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Symantec Corporation Message Board

  • ExLBGuy ExLBGuy Nov 30, 1998 10:11 AM Flag

    Where is everybody?

    The last message that I see is dated 4 days ago! Is it Yahoo, or have the QDEK jerks scared everybody off of this board?

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    • I'm sorry that you lost your job at SYMC. But
      when you've to compete with sharks like NETA, there
      will always be blood in the water.

      Coming to
      your problem of exercising options which are soon to
      expire. If there are a lot of people who have such
      options than my guess is that the stock will not do much.
      Say for example, if there are 100 employees, each
      having option for a 1000 shares. This represents
      100*1000 = 100,000 shares of SYMC which have to be sold
      soon. This puts a downward pressure on the stock to the
      exercise price (since below the e.p. the selling pressure
      disappears). The pressure will depend on the number of options
      to be exercised versus the daily trading volume. If
      this ratio is large then the downward pressure will be
      significant. If not, then the downward pressure will be small.
      With the average trading volume of SYMC around 1
      million and
      more than 20 days till the end of the
      year (assuming that's when your options expire),
      100,000 shares will have little effect on the
      price.

      If you have a rough guess as to the number of people
      in your shoes, you can easily estimate the selling
      pressure. In any case, I would not wait to the very last
      second (would sell at least a couple of days before
      expiration). I would select a day just before Christmas when
      others are not paying attention to the market. Also,
      there is usually a pre-Christmas rally as traders are
      in an upbeat move.

      I hope that I've been of
      some assistance. I deal mainly in options and would be
      glad to share any of my experience. As usual, please
      be aware that my advice does not come with any
      guarantees.

      Wishing you the best of luck.

    • Just heard about the internal re-org today. Not
      sure of any of the details. Does Wall Street care? All
      I know is that as a former employee (one of the
      100+ layed off Sept.29th), I am a bit anxious about
      the price hovering just under my target for
      exercising my soon-to-expire options. Should I bail out now
      and take what I can? Or is there any reasonable hope
      of an upturn before year-end?

    • I use exponential moving averages and so the MACD
      that I use crossed over to a sell Dec 2. It doesn't
      mean that we have to go down, but rather that we have
      lost the momentum to move up for awhile.

      I use
      Metastock. The package isn't cheap, but it has paid off very
      well. I haven't tried any other software.

      As you
      can tell by my posts I have been so "wishy washy" on
      where we are going. Part of the reason is that I am not
      all that keen on the SHORT term health of the market
      in general. Here is a copy of a post that I made
      yesterday on another board.

      "Gilbert has made an
      interesting point that has been somewhat disturbing in the
      back of my mind that I have not commented on. That
      being, "if the market behaves". We see that the indexes
      are making new highs (or at least attempting to), but
      the broader market has not been keeping pace with the
      indexes. The top stocks have been propping up the indexes
      with the secondary stocks lagging behind.
      Specifically, while we have seen three successive new highs,
      the McClellan Oscillator has made three successive
      new lows, clearly a bearish divergance and a sign
      that momentum has been falling. The markets have
      previously topped when this has happened, so to see the Dow
      having trouble is not surprising. Price is my primary
      technical indicator, so I am not selling, but would feel a
      lot better if the broader market started to improve.
      We are quickly approaching Christmas and New Year's
      rally time so it is my "gut feeling" that we will
      probably be OK and any pull back will be temporary and a
      buying opportunity. Most likely as we get into the
      "rally" season, broader market will catch up. Of course
      external market forces can definately affect even good
      stocks (Impeachment hearings, Iraq, interest rate fears,
      earning concerns, worries over foreign currency
      devaluations, dips in consumer confidence, triple witching, not
      to mention downgrades from analysts especially based
      on "this stock has moved up X%, so we are
      downgrading the stock", Oh I just hate that one)!"

      In
      addition, the Summation Index has just flashed a sell
      signal today. Nothing particularly bad about SYMC, but
      it is just hard to move up when the market wants to
      take a breather. Perhaps the selling we saw in the
      market today was enough but I wouldn't hold my breath.
      Looking for buying opportunities.

      Very good to see
      that while SYMC was down, the volume was low. So once
      again we see that while investors aren't selling in
      large numbers, buyers are not stepping up to the plate
      either. Most likely, the Christmas rally will kick in and
      with more money entering the market in January we have
      a chance to move back up. In the meantime, I look
      for consolidation to continue.

    • Well I'm not sure what this stock is going to do
      yet. I did see a crossover of MACD but doesn't look
      like a significant sell signal. Price is approaching
      20-day EMA however. Volume is still low for any downside
      day this stock has which seems to indicate its just
      taking a rest. I'm looking for a re-entry point short or
      long but don't seem to be getting a signal either
      way.

      What's your opinion?

      As to your comments about
      Technical analysis, I agree totally.

      Could I have
      your recommendation on stock charting software? You
      gotta know I'm cheap and don't like the price of any
      package I've seen.

      Thanks,

    • thnk you for the reply, will look forward to your postings, thanks

    • Moving averages represent an average of the stock
      price over a set amount of time. 50 day represents 50
      days worth of stock trading. If you were to look at a
      chart you can plot the moving averages on the chart and
      see the general trend for the stock.

      I
      generally use the 50 day exponential MA (exponential
      represents recent days as a heavier weight than first part
      of time frame) as a good support level. A strong
      stock will bounce off the moving average. If the stock
      goes below the average, the moving average will by
      definition move down or flatten out since it is an average
      of prices where the stock has been. Once the stock
      falls below the moving average, the moving average
      becomes resistance.

      I also use 12 day and 20 day
      exponential moving averages for shorter term trends, but
      consider the 50 day to be more important because it
      represents a longer term trend (about 10 weeks).

      I
      used to use the 200 day exponential moving average for
      indexes, such as NASDAQ more than for stocks. Since stocks
      declined so much I added the 200 day moving average to
      stock charts as well. This represents 9 months worth of
      trading so it is really long term.

      Symantec
      remains well above the 50 day moving average but barely
      above the 200 day moving average.

      The action of
      SYMC today looks positive.
      Great volume (looks
      like buyers have stepped in again).
      Closed just
      slightly above support/resistance level of about 20.25.
      (Might be hard to hold-SYMC closed only 1/16 above
      this)
      No longer overbought (but it won't take a lot to be
      overbought again).
      MACD still not a "buy", but this turns
      in response to stock movement, so if we can go up
      from this support level, this should turn back to the
      "buy" side.

      As far as breakouts above resistance
      go, I generally wait three days to see if it is a
      "true" breakout. I commit new money if it goes up for
      three days with decent volume. Unfortunately for SYMC,
      the last time we were above 20.25, the third day
      couldn't hold (not surprising, since RSI was so high
      (above 70 is overbought). I realize that this means that
      sometimes the stock goes ballistic without me, but many
      times, after the three days, the stock settles down and
      I can get it somewhere near the support
      level.

      So, now, let's see what happens with Symantec next
      week. A couple days of good buying could move us to the
      next trading range. Cautiously opptomistic :)

    • what does the 50 day moving average and the 200
      day moving represent? I have been trying to study the
      charts, I read this book on TA but I dont get much out of
      it, when to buy , when to sell, when to short, I
      would appreciate a response, it appears you are
      knowlegable in this area. thanks

    • Kdauster,

      My main indicator for entry and
      exit points is price. We won't know whether we are in
      the midst of a consolidation or downtrend until we
      move out of this trading range, one way or another.


      The reason that I don't sell based on one indicator
      is that it allows too much "whipsawing". 18 is good
      support and a good place to buy as long as you are
      willing to take a little loss if we close below that
      level. Right now, I am inclined to not put new money
      into this stock until we see that the indicators are
      turning up again, or we move above resistance on good
      volume. (In this case, we will see the indicators turn up
      again). The reason that MACD is now a weak "sell" is that
      we are stalling rather than in an uptrend. Same
      thing for TRIX turning down.

      Right now, I am
      just watching to see what will happen. One must
      remember that December and January are pretty good months
      for the market and since we just moved up so much, so
      quickly, it could very well be that we are just stopping
      to take a breath. Kind of like we are climbing a
      huge mountain and we decided to sprint up to the top.
      Half way there, we ran out of steam. If we had gone up
      more slowly, we possibly could have kept going, but
      since we decided to run, we had to take a rest to
      gather our energy for the next run.

      By the way,
      I believe that SYMC is part of the MidCap 400 so if
      funds that follow this index have money large inflows
      or outflows, that will affect SYMC somewhat.


      I haven't tried any of the correspondance courses.
      The real benefit to going to one of Robert's classes
      is the interaction with the teacher. I am not sure
      if there is any real benefit in the correspondance
      class you wouldn't get out of reading the book without
      this interaction.

      Good luck. If you really
      apply yourself to learning technical analysis, you will
      find that it pays off well.

    • I think the holidays put a hold on the action. I
      am looking forward to the November numbers from PC
      DATA.

      We should see another little run-up after the
      November PC DATA numbers are released and the final
      confirmation of the QDEK acquisition is announced with future
      plans of integration of the Cleansweep product into
      SystemWorks.

      Potential highlights for SYMC in
      1999:
      1. The Year 2000 scare is boosting hardware sales
      through the roof. This will increase the market for
      utilities.
      2. Budgets should increase significantly in the
      larger organizations because of the Y2K delimma. Mo
      money means mo potential sales.
      3. New revenues from
      the IBM OEM deal and IBM's entire sales organization
      of ~60,000 will be selling Norton AV.
      4. New
      products.(Ghost, Norton 2000, SystemWorks, CLEANSWEEP,
      etc...)
      5. The nice tax write off from the QDEK
      acquisition.
      6. Less competition...big bad QDEK is gone.
      7.
      1999 is forecasted by many industry analyst to be a
      huge year for High Tech.
      8. The NETA lawsuit should
      come to a favorable end for SYMC.
      10. And don't
      forget about that never ending option of a buyout. I
      would think that CA would do very well to have the SYMC
      offerings in their arsenal to attack NETA. Just a
      thought.

      Good luck to all...

      techanalyst1- please
      continue to post your predictions based on your technical
      analysis.

    • It is likely that QDEKers have scared off the
      Symantec investors who wanted factual
      information.

      Symantec held up against the overall market drop pretty
      well today. Maybe we are in store for another upward
      move in the near future.

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SYMC
24.19-0.10(-0.41%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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