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Symantec Corporation Message Board

  • techanalyst1 techanalyst1 Jan 14, 1999 9:08 AM Flag

    Above 25 by Friday?

    Significant resistance lies at 23.375 and good
    support at 18.

    You only have today and tomorrow to
    worry about. I doubt you will be called out of the
    25's. Even if SYMC does go above the resistance, you
    will likely have a chance to buy back at 23.375 and
    ride the wave up.

    I don't really expect blow
    away earnings. SYMC already said that they expect to
    fall within analyst's expectations. But PC sales are
    up and so maybe we will be surprised. Q4 is usually
    a good quarter for SYMC but Q1 tends to be a better
    as they have pretty good retail sales after people
    get those new computers for Christmas.

    If SYMC
    does close below 18 especially on good volume, I'll
    probably buy some puts as well.

    I wouldn't lose
    too much sleep over it. SYMC doesn't tend to be a
    high flyer. I'm kind of guessing that the stock hasn't
    been moving because investors are waiting for
    earnings. They've missed the last 2 quarters.

    The
    stock is so predictable from a technical basis.

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    • Deferred Revenue is Revenue which actually occurs
      in this quarter, but is recognized in different
      quarters for a variety of reasons. Companies such as MSFT
      use deferred revenue to smooth out variations in
      their business. Of course, it is illegal to do that,
      but smart accountants can always find ways around
      that.

      If you look at ERP companies such as PSFT, ORCL,
      Baanf etc, they have significant deferred revenues.
      Legally, it is supposed to represent revenue which should
      be recognized later when the actual services are
      delivered. So if PSFT agrees to deliver a product and its
      upgrade a year later, the deferred revenue would
      represent the upgrade which is due a year
      later.

      That's my understaanding. I am sure accountants can do
      much better that that. Good Luck.

    • Would you explain the deferred revenue component??

    • 1. DSOs declined from 43 days in the previous
      quarter to 34. (By comparison, NETA's DSOs increased from
      84 to 89 days).

      2. Deferred Revenue went up
      by 12 million in just the last quarter, from 34 to
      46 million. That's 35% increase in D.R. in just one
      quarter.

      3. Site Licenses went up 50% from Sept. quarter
      alone.

      4. Retail sales grew at 4% times the industry
      average in terms of unit sales while they grew just 6% in
      Revenue. However, this
      is a studied strategy to lock
      in customers as software sales will transition to a
      subscribtion based service.

      5. Whole slate of products
      being sold into Corporate apart from NAV. These include
      PC Anywhere, Norton Ghost, Norton 2000. 40% growth
      in Norton Ghost from Sept quarter alone. Nearly 50%
      of Fortune 500 companies using Norton Ghost. Ghost
      for Netware in beta with 10,000 customers. Scheduled
      for release in March. Norton 2000 showed 400%
      increase in revenue from Sept quarter. But, of course, it
      was released in Aug 98. BTW, Norton 2000 has 90% of
      retail market according to latest PC Data
      numbers.

      6. Converted significant number of NETA customers.
      These include Haliburton (45,000 seats) United
      Healthcare (30,000), Merril Lynch, Gateway, Whirlpool,
      Revlon, Hershey.

      7. Symantec's web site gets 9
      million hits a day. About 200,000 products download a
      month in the Deecmber quarter.

      8. IBM sales
      force being trained to sell NAV and Norton 2000. There
      will quotas for IBM's sales force for Symantec
      products. Symantec was the first company to become an IBM
      passport partner in October. Also, working with IBM Global
      Services which is just beginning to show results.
      Cross-selling of pructs such as Ghost and WinFax to Con-Edison
      and WinFax to Pittsburgh National Bank.

      9. New
      AV engine based on Immune System technology due by
      mid year. New release on Intel Landesk AV product due
      in February. A 3rd version of Systemworks due next
      (BTW Systemworks garnered 80% of the retail market in
      the end of December).

      10. Management appeared
      to be more confident than it has been in several
      quarters. Predicted 20% revenue growth for year 2000
      (ending March 2000) and 25% earnings growth.

      Have
      lots of other details which I'll post only if
      requested.

    • Just got off a replay of the conference
      call...

      Revenue $165 million, about 5-10 million ahead of
      expectations. Deferred revenue was up $12 million from the
      Sept. quarter. DSOs declined significantly to 34, so
      the quarter was made easily.

      Operating
      expenses included $2.3 million in one-time transition
      costs associated with the QDEK acquisition (expenses
      not in charge), which if backed out would have
      produced EPS of 44 cents.

      Corporate: 39% of revs,
      vs. 32% last q and 28% last year. IBM relationship
      strong and Eubanks referred to exanding the relationship
      in the next year.

      F2000 guidance: 20% revenue
      growth and 25% pretax margins by Q4:2000.

      Buy the
      stock.

    • Naw...should be a good day.

    • please post a summary ? Thanks.

    • The whisper number was .42. This was hit before one time charges were incurred for the Quarterdeck acquisition.

    • If they beat their numbers today, next quarter
      will be another better quarter since the Quarterdeck
      revenue and earnings will likely be added to Symantec's
      numbers after the merge is finalized. The Quarterdeck
      shareholders meeting where they will vote to finalize the cash
      merger is planned for February.

      Since layoffs at
      Quarterdeck have occured where there is overlap, the
      contribution to revenue should be much higher than the
      contribution to expenses.

      In addition, it should be
      easier for Symantec to convert IBM and Intel customers
      to Symantec's products since they have converted
      some large customers already. These large conversions
      will serve as references for other large companies
      that are contemplating the change.

      And once the
      internet hype has cooled down a little, investors will be
      looking for value companies to move their funds over to.
      Symantec is truly a value play. Their current earnings
      have one time charges included in them. If they beat
      .40 today and do the same or better over the next
      three quarters, they will have at least 1.60 for the
      year. Their P/E should be at least 20. With a P/E of 20
      they should have a price of 32.

      IMHO

 
SYMC
24.625-0.185(-0.75%)May 29 4:00 PMEDT