looks like Yoku jump back to $21 is a done deal. but i will hold mine, somebody knows more are buying like crazy. I have you some simple math.
revenue at 630M/Q and grows triple digits, next year Yoku will have 1.2B/Q, or 5B revenue a year. Yoku revenue out grows costs by multiple of 3. Street expects Q4 to lose 0.84, that will be a surprise, a big surprise!
Is there any Yoku web user? did you notice Yoku have a lot more ads this month? many new companies selling ads on Yoku video this quarter than ever before. I went to check some old videos(year of 2001) still put 2 ads per tv drama. new hot dramas have 3 ads each, while ago was only 1. older ones were free of ads. Yoku said the income per advertisement increased 70%. do your math.
at 21, Yoku is above 200 day EMA and at 6-mon new high. the stock is trading at a upper rectangle which means a sold floor at 20.5 to support. there was a bullish midterm buying signal when 10 day EMA cross 50 day EMA. that was around 17s at the Year Eve.
the next big even is Golden Cross. 50 day cross the 100 day EMA. I expect it will come in next week. that is the signal tons of long term investors eyes at. Follow the big move, follow the heavy volumes you will never get wrong.
I saw huge buy orders 10,000 at a time all day. That tells me that institutions are buying the heck out of this stock, not daytraders. 80% market share currently, but I think the reason the institutiions are so excited are:
1. They already are and will dominate the mobile space. In fact, they're getting stronger in the mobile space.
2. Profitability expected in 2013, not 2014.
3. Revenue growth accelerating, not just maintaining a triple digit growth.
SINA and SOHU were relatively weak today - it's not an accident. Institutions are figuring out who will dominate in the future.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
just read the Q3 earning statement once again. Yoku last quater lost 91M, basically revenue outgrew the costs even with merge costs combined. there was one item never on last years report, that was one time charge (83M only show up on Q3-2012):
Investment loss (82,965)
if excluded this item, then last quater Yoku lost only 91M - 83M = 8M, around 0.06 instead of .67
outlook for Q4, revenue continue(or accelerates), costs still at slower growth. I expect Q4 will be green! one more good thing is the Todou merge costs should be vanish in Q4.