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Youku Tudou Inc. Message Board

  • numberssssstalk numberssssstalk May 27, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Pro-forma income statement and why YOKU can be $200+ stock in 3 years

     

    Please refer to my earlier comments for some background.

    Revenues:
    (1) existing business: 2014 RMB4bn, 2015 +25% to 5bn, 2016 +25% to 6.25bn
    (2) new revenues from Netflix like streaming services: 2015 RMB5bn (10m subs * $8 or RMB50 monthly charges *12 = 6bn gross net of 1bn cloud services cost by AliCloud), 2016 RMB7.5bn (assuming penetration grow from 2% to 3% or 15m subs * 50 *12 - 1.5bn AliCloud cost)
    (3) new revenues from partnerships with top 10 movie studios: 2015 RMB5bn ($9bn 2014 industry size * 2/3 top 10 market shares * 10% YOKU revenue share * 1+34% growth 2015/2014 * RMB6.25/$1 exchange rate), 2016 6.7bn.

    Margins: margins from revenue (1) should increase to 50+% by 2016; from (2) should be relatively low, 2015 breakeven 2016 some 30%; and margins from revenue (3) should be extremely high because YOKU's contributions for its share of revenues are channels and promotions, not cash. Overall, 50% in 2016.

    Other costs/SGA: 4x 2014 levels or some 4bn in 2016

    Tax: once YOKU used up its loss carryovers, it should pay 15% tax rate.

    Now let's put them together for 2016:

    Revenues RMB20.45bn (

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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