7.6 times free cash flow and 5.5 times EBITDA on a trailing 12 month basis. That is a bone cheap based on any metric. We only have a small mortgage and lots of excess cash. Do not be surprised to see a dividend. Based on projected earnings, we are less than 5 x EBITDA. Having a $.45 quarter is a big achievement considering the strong 4Q last year. We are earning at a $1.80 rate in Q4.
Better yet we will show up on lots of screens since we are earning 20% on equity and 13% on assets. We also have over 20% growth. In an ideal world, we would be selling at 20 times earnings of $1.50 for 2011 or $30, instead we are at 11x.
Today stock price is 15.35. trailing 12 mos cash flow before capex $1.95/shr. Excess cash after adjusting for 2/1 current ratio is $3.80/shr. 15.35-3.80= 11.55 value. 11.55/1.95= 5.9 times cash flow. Ebitda is $17.3mm. Market value of company is $97MM plus 7.5MM debt= $104.5MM. Subtract out excess cash of $24MM and divide that by $17.3MM and the EBITDA multiple is 4.65. THat is lower than any other packaging company.
Ex the $3.80 of excess cash after 2/1 CR
BUY BUY BUY
At $16.30, it is 6 x free cash flow. That means after $1.5M of capex, they could pay us a dividend of $1.90. That is in addition to a special dividend of $3.60 from the excess cash. We have a horse. Take advantage of any weakness to load the boat.
UFPT is still in a cyclical upswing. So peak earnings are in the $2.50 range. This stock has a lot of upside. It is hard to believe it was so cheap in December. I think we have some incredible management.