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Groupon, Inc. Message Board

  • bullmarketcoming bullmarketcoming Dec 3, 2012 2:42 PM Flag

    Fundamentally, this is a dangerous short

    Risk/reward:
    Max gain $4.08/share (as of 10:35 AM PST, December 3, 2012)
    Max loss: Infinite

    Balance sheet snapshot:
    GRPN $0 debt
    GRPN +$1B cash

    What do acquirers want?
    $0 debt, +$1B cash...
    +150,000,000 subscribers
    +38,000,000 active customers (+58% YOY)

    For acquirers (GOOG, FB, ?) that debt/cash ratio is picture perfect. In an in demand, developing space, when acquisitions occur, they occur fast (often news leaks of companies, private or public, sniffing around, can move a stock in advance, dramatically)

    Btw, in a chaotic economy 2 years ago GOOG offered $6B privately (+$10/share). GRPN has had 2 years to strengthen their brand, yes? Be careful here, this one can turn quickly.

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    • christianegeskov@rocketmail.com christianegeskov Dec 4, 2012 2:41 PM Flag

      Fundamentally you are an idiot, sir!

    • The balance sheet is strong, GRPN appears to be grossly oversold. If hockeyzan, herectic_ir and newyorklawman believe the numbers not true, you best be very short here. We are seeing solid core numbers, a clean(er) balance sheet & per the prior accounting errors: "GRPN has since dedicated itself to fixing its accounting missteps, and brought on two financially adept board members: the CFO of American Express and a retired Deloitte consultant. It also hired a new chief accounting officer."

      How do we learn best? From past mistakes. Would be shocking if another misstep on the accounting side occurred. This remains a major takeout candidate.

    • Anyone who says that GRPN has "$0 debt" either can't read a balance sheet or is a liar. Which is it, in your case? Why are you pretending GRPN has "$0 debt"?

    • newyorklawman@rocketmail.com newyorklawman Dec 3, 2012 6:17 PM Flag

      There must be two balance sheets, the one I read shows PLENTY of debt, and a negative ROI on increased users period to period. Not to mention a very negative feedback from Client Providers. Yep just a real gem.Guess that's why the stock is stalling and sliding for the fifteenth time. All this is now is a short term Channel Stock that will ultimately tank permanently---unless someone buys it. A possibility, but not a good one. Make a few bucks while you can--just be careful.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 1 Reply to newyorklawman
      • Debt has interest, liability in payable doesn't has interest. So they are totally different. The new receivable could be used to pay for the past payable liability. If the total of new receivable is greater than the payable, then the extra will add up to the cash balance, and this is the benefit that Groupon has been enjoying for the past 3 years.
        With over $1 Billion cash ( free interest) Groupon can invest in Credit Card for example. Let say 20% annual return, within 5 years this $1 Billion will become $2 Billion, inwhich $1Billion will become Groupon Cash that can be add to balance sheet.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
GRPN
3.62-0.81(-18.28%)Apr 29 4:00 PMEDT