I believe you and the sellers are misinterpreting the changes to the trial information. Marucci would not have been so optimistic nor would he have dropped as many hints about catalysts that could drive up value as he did during the presentations and interviews over the past two weeks if he knew that the 011 IIb trial was underwhelming or a failure.
The most important change to the trial protocol was adding Eribulin to the allowed IC arm, and moving ixabepilone from required previous treatment to allowed IC.
Without those moves, the data presented last May would have hinted that 011 is no better than old generic chemo.
It will be interesting to see how durable the responses to 011 were. The confirmed responses were less impressive than unconfirmed in the May data and CLDX was rather reticent in discussing durability in the conference call.
My hunch - trend to OS improvement but not stat significant. Excuses offered - small numbers, confounded by crossover. Was hoping to benefit from the likely market response, but the share price is already dropping.