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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • mymandon mymandon Feb 24, 2013 2:56 PM Flag

    Is Celldex the Next Pharmacyclics ?

    With a rich cancer therapeutics pipeline at Celldex, a Pharmacyclics (PCYC) comparison is apropos. Like Celldex, Pharmacyclics is a development stage biotech with first phase III dataset coming in 2015 (drug is Ibrutinib in chronic lymphocytic leukemia), multiple expanded indication potential and rich pipeline of additional cancer drugs. Two big differences are that Ibrutinib just got breakthrough status from FDA and the partnership they have with JNJ (the Janssen subdivision) to develop Ibrutinib has $1 billion (yes, billion) in milestones if drug get to market. If Celldex were to get similar partnership deal with a global pharma company and breakhrough status for CDX-011, it's not outside of the realm of possibility that stock price goes on a run similar to Pharmacyclics run over the last 18 months. Therefore, with continuation of positive data stream and the right partnership, I would suspect there is potential for an order of magnitude (yes, that is 10x) share price appreciation ahead for Celldex in the not too distant future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • CLDX' pipeline is much more robust.

    • Because Celldex has 9+ drug candidates I think it could be the next PCYC.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to weightbayou
      • I think with the cat out of the bag now, Celldex will be re-valued at near Pharmacyclics market capitalization if a big-time partnership deal can be struck for Rindo or CDX-011. If they get a broad soup to nuts deal on both, plus continue to make progress on the pipeline this year, then I think we could actually reasonably surpass PCYC in market cap in the next 12-18 months.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • PCYC has the one drug spread over many indications; it's a giant one-trick pony but hopefully one which will do well if there are no unpleasant surprises from the drug (ie, unexpected toxicity). The rest of its pipeline is less well developed.

        CLDX obivously has the potential to be stronger, as it has several candidates which show promise. Smaller patient populations but that's less relevant if the drugs are effective.

    • The share count does not lend itself to be a PCYC it does and INFI but the data is early. I am so surprised the market has give such valuation to PCYC, INFI, and Regeneron especially without approval but they all ove share counts in th 25 million to 90 million share range a new criteria for me in determining a biotech investment. I do think CLDX could be an INFI a 6 to 42 range and still have plent of research left to do but really is the case with 9 drugs and data coming in, it could be 40 dollars going into approval for Rindo or GPNMB.

    • There is every reason to assume that breakthrough status on TNBC; high GPNMB without TN; Rindo with patients living 7+ yrs to date, or etc.., that is in one or more areas is a succinct possibility. PCYC pipeline overall pales in comparison to CLDX. Why a comparable partnership could not be had combined with breakthrough status could not happen quite soon, I cannot imagine. 1 billion in milestone payments for TNBC and high GPNMB probably not, it would probably would have to be on additional/expanded indications or another part of the pipeline. All in all certainly a succinct possibility.

      • 1 Reply to neshua10
      • agree not a billion for CDX-011 in triple-negative breast cancer, but with the expanded indications that increase the market potential significantly. And CDX-011 is not Celldex's lead drug (i.e. MM-398 is Pharmacyclics lead and we are comparing that deal to the one we may get with Celldex #2 drug in development). Rindo should add to the model and that also helps bring the comparative evaluations together. At least in this side by side comparison, the only thing holding back Celldex from Pharmacyclics like valuation is the deal to be had for CDX-011 package and breakthrough status. Better to be in ahead of these coming catalysts. That's why the secondary offering when so well and continued accumulation is ongoing until we get to pre-deal and/or breakthrough valuation level in the teens.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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