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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • kot882001 kot882001 Mar 8, 2013 10:43 AM Flag

    My take on CC

    The CLDX pushes $12 and everybody (including me) is very happy. But after reading the transcript of CC I got to conclusion that management:
    1. Have all time in the world - it will take 3 years until drug hit the market and only GOD knows if the better drugs from competition (for example NWBO) won't make CLDX candidates obsolete;
    2. No world about "breakthru designation". It looks like AM have never heard about it;
    3. They have money for 2 years, but nobody waits for the last moment, so the next dilution round is in the beg of '14
    4. There are very few catalysts in the next 10 months, so we're definetly heading toward trading range.
    I think in two years we'll get to $20 and, maybe, eventually, CLDX will make us rich, but much slower and less certain than I thought before....

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    • kot,

      Enjoy reading your posts, but this one is a total head scratcher:

      """"The CLDX pushes $12 and everybody (including me) is very happy""""
      Actually, I'm not "very happy" that CLDX is at $12+. I will be happy when CLDX will be at $35-40 and very happy when at $100-150/sh. What I'm happy about right now is that: CLDX has 6 targeted therapeutics in various phases of clinical trials: 1 in pivotal trial (110), another one going into accelerated approval pivotal trial in a few months (011), and a third one likely going into accelerated approval pivotal trial in '14 (1135); that CLDX has close to $190M in cash to push the pipeline to market; that the FDA has mapped out very favorable regulatory pathways for CLDX's therapeutics; and that top hedge funds (BlackRock, S.A.C. Capital) and blue-chaip institutions have been plowing serious money into CLDX.

      """... it will take 3 years until drug hit the market and only GOD knows if the better drugs from competition (for example NWBO) won't make CLDX candidates obsolete;"""
      Well, no need for divine powers to figure out that NWBO's DCVAx is not even a competitor for Rindo. The limited activity that DCVax has shown has been in mesenchymal GBM tumors. Last time I checked, EGFRvIII (target for Rindo) is still expressed in epithelial cells, and it would truly take an act of God to switch its expression.

      """.... No world about "breakthru designation". It looks like AM have never heard about it;...""""
      I have talked to CLDX mngmnt and can give you personal assurance that they have heard about "breakthrough designation".

      """...They have money for 2 years, but nobody waits for the last moment, so the next dilution round is in the beg of '14..."""
      Last raise was at "retail" at $7.50, and since CLDX is currently at $11+ I think it is fair to assume institutional investors are happy with their buy-in. How do you know the next raise will not be also retail, but at much higher levels (see PCYC today...)? cont'd...

      • 4 Replies to long_vrts2
      • Hey Long
        thanks once again for you insight and into CLDX and you deatiled pespective about where we are heading and why.
        I have seen some of you posts on LGND board. Are CLDX and LGND you top biotech picks? it seems that LGND will be steadily increasing revenues while mor eoand more of the partnered programs are marketed, Krypolis being one of the most promising ones.
        Thanks
        S

      • Long, I'm probably enjoy reading your posts your post even more than you mine...So, let me reply.
        1. I'd be very happy $35-$40 (please have a look at my post in November, where I predicted this price. In 3 years) and much more with any number over it, but $35 gives more than 2.5B valuation and I don't think they will get there without any approved drug on the market (and, actually sometimes when the drug gets to the market valuation is going down...AMRN & CADX are just two examples to that) which is not happening for the next 3 years at least.
        2. Breakthru designation. I really was sarcastic about it. If AM knows about why no single world about trying to get it? Would not it speed up the whole process?
        3. 1135 as far as I understand will serve very limited market. I'm not sure that whatever progress is made on that front will exite Wall Street.
        Long, I've very substantial investment in CLDX and count on it to produce fenomenal results in 2+ years. However, I'm mildly disappointed about AM approach "taking it easy" and time frame for the real advancement...

      • LONG - why wait a year for the confir=irmatory 011 study start?

      • "...There are very few catalysts in the next 10 months, so we're definetly heading toward trading range....""""
        Actually, by YE we'll have the results for the 1135 pilot trial trial in dense deposit disease. If results are positive- and there is a pretty high probability that they will be- 1135 will be going into accelerated approval pivotal trial for this ultra-orphan disease, and CLDX will be going not into a $12 trading range, but towards a valuation range like ALXN (currently at $16B).

    • 1) How do you know that DcVax is "better" than rindo?
      2) The fact that someone doesn't tell you something you want to hear doesn't mean he doesn't know about it.
      3) Dilution is often a fact of life for development-stage companies. Even PCYC "diluted" today.
      4) Not a bad idea to to step back and take a look around.

    • Agree with everything you write, kot, but note that there will be a few more catalysts this month:
      the rest of the underwriters will write glowing reports about CLDX, and you will likely get end-of-the-quarter window dressing.

    • Kot, if Celldex uses its cash conservatively then it can last beyond 2 years. Also, AM keeps a tight lip on things. I think things are better than we know. jmo

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to weightbayou
      • Weight, I agree that AM motto is "underpromise and overdeliver", but nobody waits to the last moment to raise cash. So, I think in beginning of '14 it will happen...Will it happen at higher prices than now? We can just hope....

      • the next equity raise, and there will need to be one if AM goes it alone on 011 will be done at allot higher prices then today. why worry about it.

        I would like to see them do a raise end of this year and speed up the 011 confirmatory study, in fact that study should be coinicdent with the TNBC high expressor study. use rthe same clinics and doctors and save some money and more importtanlly time to a larger market.

 
CLDX
14.07-0.09(-0.64%)Jul 24 3:59 PMEDT

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