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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • ikantcoach ikantcoach Jun 14, 2013 3:13 PM Flag

    CDX-011

    What is the market potential upon approval for 011 and what is the likely market cap based on that. Is there any good research/non-"guestimates" out there?

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    • peterpinto2011@gmail.com peterpinto2011 Jun 15, 2013 12:25 AM Flag

      any opinion on off label use for cdx 011

      also what is the status of the phase iii its not listed on clinicaltrials.gov

    • Think of it this way. There is a high probability of successful phase 3s for 110 and 011 so the probability of hitting $60 is high.

      But at the same time, if they can re-confirm correlation with GPNMB, then you have a $600 stock price.

      This might seem strange, but we will know all of the above in 18 months.

      IMHO

    • potential $5 billion for breast which is dependent on correlation with GPNMB plus other indications.

      Look at it this way. Celgene generates $5 billion a year and their market cap is $50 billion.

      That's a stock price of $600 for CLDX. This is just the beginning.

    • 011 will become a disease marker for GPNMB like HER2, it is estimated to usuable in a high amount of patients with triple negative breast cancer and those with the marker so nobody is pointing this agent to just one area of cancer probably to multiple. This product could be used first in triple negative with GPNMB and then in those with GPNMB markers and not triple negative breast cancer but just breast and then possible other cancers. I would think the minimum would be a billion to billion 5 with mid values of the 2 to 4 billion and max values over 5 billion per year.

      • 1 Reply to hokiestock
      • Where are you getting these numbers? So far the potential market for CDX-011 is about (the most) 1/3 of breast cancer patients. Multiple it by 100k cost of treatment and, maybe, you're getting 700m sales. I know that Rindo is also about 300m-500m, so taking market value as 3 times market size we get valuation of 3.6B, i.e $45 p/s. And this is long story...Of course, the speculation and hopes can take it to any level (look at DNDN at $50), but realistically if at any point price shoot over $45 I'm the seller, would like to see it getting to the skies and then crashing down. And $45, is not bad number- +200% from the current level...

 
CLDX
14.69+0.96(+6.99%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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