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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • mymandon mymandon Jun 19, 2013 9:48 AM Flag

    Celldex enterpise value is closer to $4BB

    It takes 8-10 years to get a drug to market. Celldex has not one, but two late-stage, high probability of success targeted cancer treatments in development. Both have companion diagnostics and have the data to support breakthough status should the FDA be generous to the GPNMB+ breast cancer and EGRFvIII+ brain cancer patients with no other viable options. Th current enterpise valuation is extremely low with 9000 GPNMB+ breast cancer patients and $90,000/per course of life saving treatment the market here is closer to $1BB (not $300MM) + equal size for expanded patient population including line extention for EGRFvIII+ glioblastoma + combined (heavily) discounted potential for the rest of the pipeline (that by the way has even grater potential than CDX-011 and Rindopepimut combined) and you get market potential by 2020 of $3BB/annum. Conservative 3 times revenue brings 2020 enterprise buyout value to $9BB. Discouting that by ~10% per year back to current value of $4BB. There is no way current $1.2BB enterprise value is even close to the full value of Celldex Therapeutics with deep portfolio of 9+ targeted drugs in development.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • peterpinto2011 Jun 20, 2013 12:27 AM Flag

      herceptin gets over 800 million in revenue and this drug is better...i will say that cdx 011 should draw a similar revenue stream because of its benefit in GPNMB+ breast cancer

      my only concern is that a gene test will be required first before the prescription is given

      • 1 Reply to peterpinto2011
      • A companion diagnostic is available and will be used, but don't be confused- this is a good thing and FDA look very, VER:Y favorably on drugs with companion diagnostic becasue they know it will be given to patients that will benefit from treatment. Payers (HMOs, government, medicare, etc) love these too as they know they will only be paying for presecriptions that have been shown to work in very specific patient population. This is part of the reason Celldex is in such a great position here (i.e. drugs are target seeking missles to cancer cells and not just carpet bombing chemo or radiation therapy.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • CLDX will bounce back big time very soon. I say that because a slew of catalysts are yet to occur.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It is obvious he did review the pipeline but he does not have any idea on how much it costs to bring these drugs to markets and also the real potential behind many of these unique targeted therapies. CLDX is being very deliberate on getting the drugs approved first and then move into possible dozens of other indications for the other molecues. Almost every single product in the pipeline could have at least 2 indications and maybe more. Understanding that pure fact is the reason for understanding the true value of the pipeline.

      • 2 Replies to hokiestock
      • Exactly, the time and don't forget the resources to get a immunotherapy market ready huge. And Celldex has two successful drug candidates knocking at the revenue door. . . . Anyone valuing this company worth their salt has to be keenly aware of how difficult this is and should not be underestimating potential revenues. The two lead compounds are going to be on the market in just a few years time- and maybe sooner. The lives of cancer patients that will have a chance at surviving longer is at stake and Celldex has done the work to help them and will be rewarded handsomely for a job well done (if not now) then when all is said and done.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • "he does not have any idea on how much it costs to bring these drugs to markets"

        You write that like it is a good thing for CLDX.

    • Agreed. But be very careful now, don't tell that to the idiot writer of today's seeking Alpha article on CLDX. It begins rather good but it ends on a bit ludicrous, I won't even, can't even, say conservative note, that "reward/risk ratio" is a bit high or nearing its high at current price of 15.40. Also why is it that partnership, let alone buyout has to be a pacifier that is immediately assumed; partnering on a number of areas yes, but NOT CDX-011 and Rindo. Buyout NO WAY JOSE. And it is not that everybody has their price BULL--- st,
      No buyout right now sorry. Who is going to pay 50-100+ now. Is worth it? Um ! Let me see. Oh yes! Let's see, high GPMNB on multiple cancers, strike that price to 100.00, oops we forgot Rindo in children, oops how about the valuation of 1127 if successful and "if" here is not such a big word, probable more like it. 150-200
      Yes, their expand out their diagnostics and in-house MFG capabilities just create a pretty picture for the one to come alone tomorrow and throw them a bone of 35.00. Sorry, don't think so. The article is relatively good and then it is somewhat wimpy vomit in last paragraph!

      • 2 Replies to neshua10
      • temporal Jun 19, 2013 9:53 PM Flag

        Neshua, I read that alpha article as little better than the author's (failed in my view) attempt to "damn with faint praise".... And, the author did admit he'd lost out on CLDX by not buying early on. Who knows what his real motivation was, but the article didn't come across accurately representing CLDX's future in my view

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • yes, there is no reason for Celldex to partner CDX-011 or Rindo. The probability of success is very high and revenues are right around the corner in drug development timeframes. There are other earlier-stage projects that have similar potential that coudl be partnered. Celldex really doesn't have to partner with anyone due to nature of the drugs and cash position the only way. however, the one thing that is unique here is that companies like AstraZeneca have seen some late stage failures and would benefit from (need?) high probability late-stage products like CDX-011 and Rindo to fill the void coming in 2016 when Crestor goes off patent. The only whay for them to get that would be a premium BO and I think your $50/share (and my $4BB enterprise) valuations are close to what it would take to make that happen. Remember the one thing that is unique here is 100 % ownership of entire pipeline. That would make the deal uncomplicated and any earnings 100% credited to suitor's revenue. It may also be the only way any big pharma is going to be able to benefit from Celldex's great work in the pioneering field of immunotherapy.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

4.33+0.16(+3.84%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT