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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • CLDX has been on a remarkable run for the last year. Even when the going got tough for the market in general, there has been an underlying strength to CLDX, that has been unyielding and has propelled valuation to new highs. Biotech valuations for companies that are at a stage as CLDX are driven by catalysts, primarily based on the pipeline, but also financing and, more subtle, shifts in perception. I have listed below some of the catalysts, both recent and longer term, that have an impact IMO on the performance of CLDX:

    1. End of quarter window dressing: we are 2 weeks away from end of 3Q'13, and everybody loves a winner in their portfolio. CLDX has outperformed the S&P US Health Care index 12-fold (!) over the last year, even more remarkable considering that the index had an exceptionally good year.

    2. Short-covering: most investors were expecting a tapering of QE by the Fed, and a corresponding correction in biotech stocks due to a more negative market sentiment. The Fed threw a curveball and the shorts were left exposed (pun intended), leading to panicky covering. In addition, the window of opportunity for shorting CLDX has pretty much disappeared. QE will continue for another 6 weeks, and then we get close to the release of the CDX-1127 trial results in early November. Only a short with a serious death wish would want to be short in the first week of November.

    3. Start of CDX-011 trial: this is a known quantity and IMO is somewhat baked into the pps. However, there may be a modest bump due to getting this accelerated trial underway given the significance of 011 and the companion diagnostic for GPNMB+ TNBC.

    4. Release of Rindo results in Avastin refractory pts YE'13: we know that the results will be positive based on management comments and the expansion of the trial from 25 to 100 pts. So the uncertainty is more in the sense of how positive the results will be- perhaps there is a realization that the results could be better than anticipated.

    cont'd

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I'm more optimistic they'll finish recruitment by January for the expansion of the Rindo/Avastin trial.

    • Thanks so much, Long. Your posts are the main reason I still have my core holdings of 15k shares. I am a CPA and understand numbers pretty well, but I need people like you (and you are the best!) who understand the science and catalysts in companies like this. Your credibility is tops. Appreciate all the other input here, also - even Mabio's. Wish I could add to the discussion, but I don't have the scientific and industry knowledge that it takes, so I will continue lurking and absorbing the information that comes from trusted sources like you.

    • wonderful, astute analysis. Kudos Long for your keen observations and sincere thank you for your willingness to share these with the board.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • super overview, thanks for taking the time. Shorts (and anyone looking to go long at a discount) have one more shot: government shutdown. Anyone who isn't long when that gets resolved will kick themselves for a long time to come

    • Are there any other drug companies like CLDX out there where one can get in on the ground floor?

      • 1 Reply to mortimer_duke57
      • My ground floor stocks from a year ago (CLDX, LGND, ACAD) are now mid-level in the highrise- and appear headed for the penthouse- so I don't think they fit the criteria you are looking for. I also have shares in CELG, GILD and ABT, but these are mature pharmas/biotechs and likely not what you had in mind (even though a 20-25% per yr return for the next 5 years, with low risk, is not a bad way to diversify your portfolio). If I come across anything promising I'll mention it.on the MB.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • LV I wish to again THANK YOU for giving me the SCIENCE I needed to stay the course! Yours are the ONLY POST I actually CUT and PASTE into a word doc and kept a running file to review! That speaks to YOUR WISDOM...you inspire me..you REACH OUT to others and ASK NOTHING IN RETURN...YOU are the epitome of LEADERSHIP on this board!

      I wish to thank the University of Maryland School of Busine$$ and all the tough profs I had in BS especially in FINANCE who taught me HOW TO ASK THE RIGHT spreadsheet QUESTIONS..I wish to thank BAYER who taught me in 23 years of Pharma sales NOT TO BE AFRAID to ask those questions and SEEK OUT THAT WHICH YOU WANT! Bayer has been the confidence booster in my career that showed me how to take smart risks, forget about the mistakes, just LEARN FROM THEM and MOVE ON DOWN THE ROAD one foot at a time!

      I wish to thank AM at CLDX who gave me the time of day when NO ONE wanted his stock a couple years ago! Those meetings w/ AM and Tibor gave me the confidence to invest longterm in CLDX when PFE baled at $2.50/share! The rest is now history! I remember Anthony saying to me a big goal was to take the ownership in CLDX at the Institutional level way up...well Anthony you did that my friend...now 81%!!!

      Finally I wish to thank all the clowns at YAHOO who Ive ignored over the YEARS who told me CLDX was a loser...to all of you BURN BABY BURN...

      Yo ADRIAN(yes rocky?).... We DID IT!

      Fraz

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The title of the post is "Catalyst, catalyst, who's got a catalyst..." For some reason Yahoo censored it to an "E"- go figure...

      5. CDX-1135 pilot trial: this drug has tremendous potential, but it's early in the game. I don't see 1135 contributing much at this stage.

      6. CDX-1127 PI trial results: these will be released at the SIC Conf Nov 7-10. Adverse effect profile should be quite good based on what we know so far, but the surprise may come in efficacy as reflected in clinical benefit in melanoma and renal cell carcinoma pts. Robust efficacy in these hard to treat cancers would have a substantial impact on CLDX valuation.

      Exceptional pipeline, astute management, robust finances and last, but not least, a very positive buzz: CLDX is poised for a great run going forward, from an already very solid base.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
CLDX
4.33+0.16(+3.84%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT