Quote from Wedbush...
"Our $35 price target is a based off of 6x multiples of our 2018 rindopepimut (global), CDX-011 (US breast cancer) and CDX-1135 (dense deposit disease, US and EU) sales, discounted back to YE:14.
+ $14 Upside from $35/share could come from ACT IV stopping early (potentially worth $14/share from earlier commercialization and reduced risk)
+ $10- $20 Positive CDX-1127 results could add an additional $10-20/share for expectations around just the US renal cancer and melanoma opportunities," he added
= $59 - $69
Whip, weight, other longs what are your serious thoughts on this statement, its a pretty bold one by Wedbush like they know something ?
I'm sitting on more shares (and gains. My cost basis is $4.3) then most of investors here. Not selling. Just wrote covered puts for November at $34-$36. I don't believe that 20%+ a week momentum will continue. We need some consolidation. For thee next 1.5-2 years it will be no product on the market. So, let me ask you - what kind of valuation do you think the company deserve without any sales? 3B? 4B? 5B? Currently we're at 2.3B, so it is still room to ran higher,
but not that much. I believe that news in November-December period will push stock higher and closer to approval based upon all these speculations about potential market size we can get to $60. It is 100% in 1.5-2 years. I'll take it any day. Even if we get "only" to $45 it is still 50%
better than any Mutual Fund performance...
I agree CLDX is probably fairly valued at $29 right now on September 22. The stock does need to consolidate after last week's phenomenal runup. I posted last week that I expected a runup to $28 or $29 with some consolidation perhaps pulling back down to $26 afterward and trading between $26 and $29 for much of October.
I believe fair value at EOY will be around $32 given what we now know and expect, but that could increase to $44 (at most, I think, by EOY) if both ReACT results and CDX-1127 results are stellar, unexpectedly positive. $44 PPS would be about $3.5 billion market cap, and that's about where I would expect CLDX to trade for much of 2014 if it reaches that high before the end of this year. As we go into the second half of 2014, though, I would expect the share price to begin increasing toward $60 by EOY 2014.
Of course, buyout and partnership are the wild cards that could immediately change valuation metrics substantially, adding between 10%-20% overnight in the case of a partnership and 100%-150% in the case of a tender offer for a buyout or in the case of a merger.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
kot, $45 in 1 - 2 years? I think we could hit that in 3- 6 months with all the catalyst , momentum, analyst upgrades, high institution ownership, continued accumulation, .....this stock will be $50 + in 2014.
Just remember PCYC trades at $120 per share with a 8 billion market cap with 73 outstanding shares ,500 million in cash and 67% institution owned. Has NO approved products with only 4 in pipeline!!
Compare CLDX pipeline, market cap and share price we are NOT showing true value.
I think finally the analyses are starting to come into line with reality. Celldex was very seriously undervalued for last 18 months and those of us long this stock recognized that long before the analysts considered this stock anything much more than idle speculation. Celldex will be an independent commercial biotech with several products on the market in just a few years time. Moreover, they have demonstrated that the precision targeted immunotherapy platform they have developed works to identify viable drug cadidates and that the infrastructure and management team can bring them through the clinic to approval independent of partnerships with big pharma or big biotech. This is unheard of to have this much potential and be independent at this stage and that is why we are going higher gentlement. Buy more Celldex.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After Wedbush's first announcement about the upgraded price target that included the additional upside amounts that you cite, I also remarked that I thought it was significant that Wedbush would publicly mention the possibility that ACT-IV could be halted early for statistically significant positive results. Why would it go out on a limb like that unless it had reason to suspect that possibility was a probability? I also think it's significant that the upside for 1127 results was mentioned. Wedbush clearly has done its DD on Celldex and its analysts understand the great potential of Celldex's treatments, potential that is not baked into the current share price. Within the next twelve months Wedbush is saying Celldex could more than double from the current price (which would be triple from where CLDX was trading when Wedbush originally announced the upgrade).
I have been predicting $30 before EOY since the spring, and I have stated that I believe the closing price on December 31 will be $32. However, if ReACT and CDX-1127 results that will be announced in November are both highly favorable, I could see CLDX rallying on the news to close the year in the mid $40s. So although I disagree that $39 will be reached in October, depending on the news that will be announced in November I believe high $30s and mid $40s are reachable in December in the aftermath of positive news announcements in November.
For all of the reasons above I am not selling any shares in my core position before the end of November. I will trade CLDX on swings in price, if that opportunity presents itself on a dip, to profit a little more.
Sentiment: Strong Buy