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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • novochris novochris Nov 7, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    How much impact did AMGN-ONYX acquisition had on CLDX's $38 high?

    Curious for other longs thoughts on the sudden rapid growth to $38 about how much of that was from the overall flood into biotech as companies speculated who the next target would be?

    Recall during that period several biotechs hit highs in Sept. & Oct as well so even at that time (while believing CLDX will be very much exceed that next year) it seemed to be too quick price increase. Thus, without the mini-biotech bubble from AMGN-ONYX in early fall would a December target of $30 versus $40 be expected more?

    I appreciate your feedback ..... Good luck longs as we've lived with patience being a virtue through the ups and downs while firmly believing: "IT'S THE SCIENCE" that will make CLDX long term successful.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • At $125 this savvy investor makes ALXN his #1 holding . You would think that his research staff would invest in CLDX at just $25 a share! .

      Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) is Louis Navellier's new No. 1 stock holding. Shares of the biopharmaceutical company represent 3.65% of the firm's equity portfolio, a significant increase from the 0.03% mark one quarter earlier. Navellier joins Viking Global, Citadel (see its historical filings here) and Healthcor Management as decently large shareholders of Alexion stock, which has returned 27.3% year-to-date.
      Aside from the novel exposure that Alexion gives investors to antibody therapeutics like Soliris and eculizumab in particular (Soliris' active ingredient), the company also offers growth prospects above similarly sized healthcare large-caps. The sell-side expects Alexion to generate earnings expansion of 24% to 25% a year over the next five years, and shares aren't particularly overvalued at 35 times forward EPS.
      Judging by Navellier's decision to boost his holdings by nearly sixfold, it's likely he's bullish on these prospects. Going forward, we'll be watching three things at Alexion: (1) its ability to expand Soliris sales in BRIC nations, (2) its willingness to use eculizumab to treat various rare diseases in addition to PNH, a blood disorder, and (3) its capability to use the asfotase alfa drug of Enobia, which it bought last year, to treat hypophosphatasia, a rare bone disease.

    • A lot, for me. AMGN just spent $10.4 Billion to get three approved drugs, one totally owned by ONYX and 2 others shared with Bayer, $1.4 billion in annual sales in 2012. I was also influenced by what has happened with ALXN. CLDX could have 2 totally-owned drugs on sale in 2015, with more in trials, or the same ones in trials for other indications. That makes it look a little like ONYX. If Big Pharma spent just $8 billion to buy CLDX that would put it over $100/sh. Maybe that is pie-in-the-sky thinking, time will tell. I watched CLDX drop from $38 to $22 and didn't lose a bit of sleep because of that AMGN/ONYX buyout, and ALXN, and because both 110 and 011 work, and 1127 and 1135 have excellent prospects. GLTA

    • Wrong but right. I have seen this trick before hedge funds let continous upgrades and news run a stock knowing there are other key strategies to come so they run it out in front and it is usually the short sellers who have gotten burned or others who are not for sure of the data or what to make yet. I think this is what happen t o CLDX and remember this is a very low float stock so 1.50 dollars are very possible. I would think with such new that 2 or more dollar days. CLDX was smart to stagger the news and I expect 1135 to follow behind rindo soon. Essentially I think it was a ploy by hedge funds to control what happen today, look at it where it touched and where it finished. These guy can manipulate stocks by working together or to cover. I have found this often in my owning of SAC captial stocks. Essentially this stock will run most stocks or products are not worth an extra billion or two with phase one but it appears the efficacy of 1127 is going to be very synergistic with other molecues. So lets see 1 billion for 1127 in current state, 1 billion for rino in current state and 1.25 billion for 011 in current state and you can see why the price adjustments to 40 and 45 per share. Eseentially though we will have to add multiples and 1135 which I think could be larger than these products as well, then Celldex has mumbled recently about the pre clinical products coming through the pipeline, I dare say there is another nugget on the way in the pipeline pre clinical not including the other agents I have forgotten. Right now minimum is 6 Billion for this company as is and probably start adding multiples to Rindo soon, so Rindo would be worth about 2.5 billion to 3 billion alone.

      • 1 Reply to hokiestock
      • Thank you for your comments Hokie, Whipper, & Godiswithyou .... all good points to consider that help my understanding. Manipulation having more impact than a general biotech bubble during the run up does seem very probable.
        We seem to agreed for staying focus on the long term patiently riding the roller coaster trending up.
        I appreciate your logical response rather than just "pumping" CLDX.
        Good luck longs.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • This CLDX has to be a target for one of those big, big, big, biotech's and we maybe talking about a $150 buy out....only when the FDA approves two or three applications that work very well. Because this pipeline is very strong, with possible seven working applications.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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