Going alone or acquisition based pricing are different.
At $38 it was being priced for acquisition plus a confluence of other factors. Right now, all external factors have been washed out and it is being priced as if they are going alone.
Pricing difference between going alone or being acquired is spread by 1-2 years, so it really doesnt matter to me which direction they choose to follow.
Companies that have stellar results in phase 1 or 2 and fail phase 3 are those who did not validate the target, understand the mechanism of action, and/or did not correctly predict the patient population for their studies. The last one is controlled by the inclusion/excusion criteria.
THAT IS NOT THE CASE FOR CLDX. They rigorously test the target, continue to validate the mechanism and are very very careful of their target population for their studies.
The science is strong within them. The result to date have been so strong that it seems pointless to blind them.
There is no need for a rumor. Find me another company with strong clinical data for each of their drugs. Every company wants CLDX. There will be a bidding war once the first one places a reasonable offer.
2014 is still viable for large pharma to acquire CLDX while its still below $10 billion. With interim data on ACT 4, interim data on CDX 011, additional cohort data on 1127 and recurrent GBM, and as other studies move into phase 1 or 2, this company will eventually move out of the COMFORTABLE price range for those who WANT CLDX. This will begin to occur in 2015.
Thats why I predict...just a prediction that 2014 or maybe 1H2015 is when the offer than management is willing to entertain will occur. I bet money that Marucci is in perpetual discussions with a number of companies. The data is his leverage and the offers will increase with more data.