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SkyPeople Fruit Juice, Inc. Message Board

  • jojothemonkeyboy44 jojothemonkeyboy44 Sep 12, 2012 5:11 PM Flag

    I hate to say it but

    SPU is a damaged stock. Only a share buyback seems like it could be the only catalyst to move it up at this point. Am I wrong?

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    • jojo,
      I've been away from this board for 3 or 4 months, but here's my "IMHO" perspective on a share buyback. A lot of us are in this stock over $3.00 per share. I was until I "doubled down" when it looked like the stock had bottomed a little below $1.50, so even after buying another 3k shares, My average cost is in the $2.40 price range, and I see no reason to sell the stock at a loss. I was a "buy and hold" investor for 20 plus years and I don't have the time on a daily basis to follow the market and become a trader. My wife had a traumatic brain injury in January of 09, and for the last couple of years, I've had to pretty much help her walk, etc
      This stock looks like it could explode in the next couple of years, considering they are getting into orange juice production which will, I believe, open up new opportunities to market the kiwi, pear and other juice products. Also, from reading the just published articles, apparently they are moving into exporting their products. I absolutely would favor a dividend, though. I'm getting ready to retire myself, and a lot of the "old fart" investors are motivated by dividends. SPU could easily afford to pay a 5% dividend rate initially, which will attract institutional investors, and most likely will motivate more analysts to look at the stock. According to Yahoo, Roth capital is the only company with a rating on the stock, and it's a two year old "buy" recommendation, yet they are listed at a "3" rating on analysts recommendations, which is HOLD. Since you posted your note a couple of months ago, the 3rd quarter reports came in and it looks like to me that their performance was STELLAR versus a year ago.
      Shifter and I were talking about their price versus true value about 90 days ago, and it looked like the stock was worth about $6.00 per share. After factoring in the latest quarter results, from what I read the shareholder value increased by about 35 cents a share, which would make it worth about $6.35. I think that if they began paying a 5% dividend, high enough to turn some heads without scaring investors into thinking "something's gotta be wrong here.", we would see several bean counters start taking a look at SPU.
      This stock looks like a prime target for a takeover considering the cash on hand, low debt, growing sales, etc. A guy like Romney could come in and steal the cash, sell off the other assets and leave them to sink or swim, or just liquidate everything, and make a fast $100 million. The best defense SPU has right now is that the CFO's brother has near controlling interest, so they could probably fend off a hostile takeover. I really think this stock could double next year, barring an economic meltdown worldwide, and if that happens and you are long in everything, like I am. you're screwed anyway.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • No, you are not wrong. Until the company is willing to part with some of its HORDE of cash to benefit the shareholders in either a stock buyback (my preference) or a dividend payment, the market will be wary and rightfully so. They have been burned by other Chinese companies...

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